Monthly Market Update: Residual values in Europe endure multiple influences
01 August 2025
List prices of new cars climbed higher in July. Meanwhile, the supply and demand of used models fell. But how are these factors impacting European residual values (RVs)? Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, reviews the data with Autovista Group experts.
In an ongoing trend, average new-car list prices continued to rise in July across major European automotive markets. This metric rose month on month and year on year in Austria, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK.
France recorded the largest year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while also observing the biggest monthly list price growth of 3.3%. This was followed by Austria, which saw an 8.8% uptick compared with July 2024.
Spain, Switzerland, and Germany also recorded significant list price increases of 8.2%, 7.1% and 6.7% respectively. The UK posted a 4% rise while Italy saw a 1.8% growth. But what happened with other key market metrics?
Declining supply and demand
In another continuing trend, used-car supply continued to fall year on year across Europe. The active-market volume index (AMVI) of two-to-four-year-old cars saw the biggest advert slump in Spain, down by 43.6%.
Italy was the only other country to record a double-digit AMVI decline, with an 11% drop. Conversely, the UK and France saw used-car volumes remain stable compared to other markets, declining by 4.1% and 1.6% respectively.
Compared to July 2024, the sales-volume index (SVI) also fell across all seven observed markets. This was except for France, which posted a 3.7% increase. On the other hand, Spain suffered a 36.8% drop in demand. Double-digit SVI declines were also seen in the UK and Germany, down by 24.3% and 19.1% respectively.
Residual values impacted
So, how do these trends affect RVs? Rising new-car list prices can cause more people to turn to the used-car market. This creates more demand, which means absolute RVs can go up on average. These values did increase year on year across almost every market, apart from Italy and Spain.
However, new-car list prices are far from the only factor influencing values. RVs presented as a percentage of retained new-car list price (%RVs) declined across all seven of the observed markets.
In countries like Germany and the UK, the SVI saw a greater year-on-year drop than the AMVI. This indicates demand fell faster than supply, which can put pressure on RVs as buyer interest weakens. So, %RVs may have suffered an even steeper fall without list prices increasing.
Switzerland suffered the strongest year-on-year %RV decline of 5.1 percentage points (pp). Italy and Spain endured notable decreases of 4.2pp and 4pp, respectively. Meanwhile, %RVs were down by 3.5pp in France, 2.8pp in Austria and 1.6pp in Germany. Percentage values in the UK dropped by 1pp.
Austria’s decreasing demand
The SVI in Austria decreased slightly in July, after a strong increase in June. The number of observed sales decreased by 1.8% compared to the previous month and recorded a decline of 9.2% year-on-year.
‘The AMVI of two-to-four-year-old passenger cars showed a similar trend in July. The supply volume of passenger cars in this age bracket was down by 1% from June and by 5.7% compared to one year ago,’ said Robert Madas, Autovista Group’s regional head of valuations.
The average amount of time needed to sell a used car decreased slightly in June to 67.6 days. Diesel vehicles continued to be the fastest-selling powertrain, taking 59.6 days to sell on average last month. This was followed by plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) at 69.5 days, petrol vehicles at 70.6 days and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) at 80.3 days.
The technology saw a significant improvement in turnaround rates. These models left dealerships 4.4 days faster than June and 6.1 days quicker than July 2024. Full hybrids (HEV) took the longest amount of time to sell in July at 81.3 days.
The %RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km decreased slightly to 48.3% on average last month. This was a 0.5 pp drop compared to June but a 2.8pp decline from July 2024.
‘HEVs retained the greatest amount of trade value in July at 52.5%, followed by petrol cars at 50.4%. Then came diesel models with 49% and PHEVs with 45.8%. BEVs held the lowest %RV once again, at 39.6%,’ Madas outlined.
%RVs are expected to decrease in the coming years, but at a slower pace. This is due to weakening demand and unwavering supply. By the end of 2025, %RVs are forecast to fall by 0.2%. In 2026, a slightly bigger year-on-year drop of 0.7% is predicted.
RV stability in France
Average RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km in France were relatively stable last month.
‘This comes as list prices increased from the previous month. More importantly, list prices have risen by 9.2% year on year. This means that new vehicles from 2021 were cheaper than those from 2022,’ explained Ludovic Percier, Autovista Group’s senior RV analyst for France.
The absolute trade RVs of petrol-powered cars were stable in July, performing in a similar way to the overall market.
Diesel’s absolute trade values rose marginally in July, while models spent more days in stock on average. However, the powertrain still sold quicker than petrol vehicles.
Despite recording higher absolute RVs and list prices compared to petrol-powered cars, diesel %RVs were nearly identical to their internal combustion engine (ICE) sibling.
‘Hybrid RVs grew month on month in both percentage and absolute terms. This performance contrasts with a recent period of stagnation and very slight declines. HEVs were the fastest-selling powertrain in July. Even though some petrol vehicles were quicker to sell, overall, HEVs behaved better,’ he noted.
Struggling PHEVs
Conversely, PHEV RVs have fallen, while the technology is spending an increasing amount of time in dealerships on average. The smallest and cheapest PHEVs are the easiest and quickest to sell. The supply of used PHEVs is exceeding demand. This has caused the powertrain to suffer %RV declines over the last few months.
BEV absolute trade RVs increased in July. However, all-electric vehicles were the slowest-selling powertrain this month. BEVs needed a turnaround time of 86.9 days on average, up by 3.6 days from June.
‘Demand in France is unbalanced for BEVs between the new and used-car markets. This is due to incentives and tax benefits only applying to new car buyers. Used car buyers are not willing to pay such a high premium compared to ICE models,’ said Percier.
Higher ranges have helped to maintain RVs. However, rising prices have had a huge impact on values. Social leasing, café regulation and fleet buyers have led to low BEV RVs. However, this situation has improved compared to when Tesla and BYD operated huge discounts on their vehicles.
Germany’s consistent supply
Following a strong increase in June, used-car demand in Germany fell during July. Compared to the previous month, this metric was down 6.3%. The result also marked a significant decrease of 19.1% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, the supply of two-to-four-year-old passenger cars remained stable compared to June. However, the AMVI of passenger cars in this age bracket dropped by 7.2% compared to the previous year.
‘The average number of days needed to sell a used car remained stable at 59.9 days in July. Diesel models sold the fastest at 57.3 days, closely followed by HEVs at 57.6 days. PHEVs took 58.6 days to leave dealerships, trailed by petrol cars at 61.3 days, while BEVs took 62.6 days to sell,’ stated Madas.
%RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km showed another slight increase in July. Models held an average %RV of 48.3%. This was a 0.1pp increase compared to June but a 1.6pp decrease year-on-year.
‘Petrol cars led the market with a %RV of 49.8%. Then came diesel cars at 49.3% and HEVs at 48.8%, followed by PHEVs at 43.2%. BEVs again retained the lowest level of value at 37.2%,’ he said.
Although RVs have stabilised recently in Germany, demand remains weak. RVs can be expected to remain under pressure. In 2025, %RVs are forecast to decrease, down 2.7% when compared with December 2024. Pressure will probably ease in 2026, with RVs forecasted to suffer a smaller decline of 1.4%.
Italy’s values stay on trend
The average %RV of 36-month-old vehicles at 60,000km showed a year-on-year drop of 4.2pp in July. This confirms a downward trend, as already observed in previous months. The figure was also 0.8pp down compared to last month. This pace of decline was broadly consistent with what has been seen across the first half of 2025.
‘All fuel types show a sharp decline compared to last year. It is worth noting that LPG-powered vehicles were the least affected, with a drop of 1.5pp in %RVs. This confirmed renewed buyer confidence, supported by the stabilisation of fuel prices,’ said Marco Pasquetti, Autovista Group’s head of valuations for Italy.
Conversely, the sharp decline continued for BEVs and PHEVs, down 4pp and 6.5pp respectively. The two technologies are still struggling to gain significant market share. However, it is fair to point out that new-car sales data for these powertrains are on the rise, offering hope for the future,’ he highlighted.
The average selling times of two-to-four-year-old used cars have increased compared to last month, reaching 60.4 days. BEVs took the longest time to sell, needing 72.9 days to leave dealerships.
On the other hand, LPG remained the fastest-selling powertrain, with a turnaround rate of just 40.8 days. Overall, the fastest-selling models in July were both from Dacia, with the Sandero averaging 30.9 days in stock and the Duster 33.3 days.
An RV drop of 8.5% is forecasted for the end of 2025. Further declines are also projected in the coming years, albeit at a slightly slower pace.
Switzerland’s supply slump
After a marginal month-on-month increase in June, used-car demand fell in Switzerland during July. The number of sales observed decreased by 0.3% compared to June. Year-on-year, the SVI was down by 8.5%.
‘Meanwhile, the AMVI of two-to-four-year-old passenger cars increased slightly by 0.9% in July compared to the previous month. However, the supply volume of passenger cars in this age bracket slumped by 8.8% compared to the previous year,’ explained Madas.
%RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km dropped again in July, falling from 42.8% in June to 42.4%. The year-on-year decline was more severe, down 5.1pp from the values recorded 12 months ago.
‘HEVs retained the most value in July by far at 47%. Then came petrol cars at 43.9%, diesel models at 41.7% and PHEVs at 39.9%. BEVs continued to be the worst-performing powertrain. All-electric cars held only 36.4% of their original list price,’ he stated.
July saw two-to-four-year-old passenger cars sell slightly slower than in June, taking 78.5 days to sell on average.
HEVs sold fastest at 71.6 days, followed by diesel cars at 71.9 days, petrol cars at 78.3 days and BEVs at 82.8 days. Meanwhile, PHEVs needed the most time to sell at 87.6 days on average.
A trend of relatively stable supply and low demand will continue as various uncertainties shroud 2025. Values are expected to decrease in the coming years, but at a slower pace. By the end of 2025, %RVs are expected to decrease by 4.2% compared to December 2024. In 2026, a lower year-on-year drop of 1.5% is expected.
Seasonal softening in the UK
‘The UK’s used car market experienced a seasonal softening in July, with retail activity slowing and vehicle values edging downward,’ commented Jayson Whittington, Autovista Group’s regional head of valuations, UK.
‘The average three-year-old car retained 49.1% of its original cost new price last month, a decline of 1.5pp from June and 1pp lower than the same period last year. This level of depreciation is typical during the summer months, when consumer attention often shifts away from vehicle purchases,’ he explained.
Sales activity fell by 5.9% compared to the previous month, while the SVI was down 24.3% year-on-year. This decline in demand has led to a slight increase in available inventory, with the AMVI indicating 1.2% more cars for sale on dealer forecourts. Despite this uptick, stock levels remain 4.1% lower than in July 2024.
Fuel type influences values
Fuel type continues to influence residual values. Petrol vehicles retained 50.2% of their original cost new price, down 1.7pp from June. Diesel cars held slightly stronger at 52%, showing a modest year-on-year gain of 1.2pp. This was likely due to the declining supply of this once-dominant fuel type, which slumped by 36.6% year on year.
Hybrids retained 52.9% of their list price, the best %RV performance of any powertrain. Meanwhile, the average PHEV %RV dropped to 47.8%. BEVs remained the weakest performers, holding just 35.3% of their original value.
Despite sales activity cooling, dealers needed an average of 37.4 days to sell a used car, almost unchanged from June. Petrol cars sold in 36.9 days on average, while hybrids need the shortest amount of time to sell at 33.4 days.
PHEVs had an average turnaround rate of 39.4 days. BEVs took 39.1 days to leave dealerships and diesels were the slowest seller at 41.8 days.
‘The used car market continues to demonstrate underlying stability, with current trends largely reflecting typical seasonal fluctuations. Glass’s anticipates no major disruption to the UK’s supply and demand dynamic throughout the rest of 2025. A modest year-on-year RV decline of approximately 3% is projected by December,’ Whittington concluded.
