2026 residual value outlook: Regional shifts and trends

21 January 2026

Which macroeconomic factors influenced European used-car markets in 2025? What is the 2026 residual value (RV) outlook? How are trends developing in Eastern Europe? A new Autovista Group webinar answers these questions.

RVs presented as a percentage of retained new-car list price (%RV) continued to fall through 2025. This followed a normalisation trend observed in the years after the COVID-19 pandemic, when values were greatly inflated.

But what other influencing factors have been at play, and will they persist this year? How will this shape value retention over the rest of 2026? Will Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) see different %RV developments compared to Western Europe?

These questions were answered in the live webinar, 2026 residual value outlook: Regional shifts and trends. During this session, Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus spoke with a panel of Autovista Group experts.

This included Ana Azofra, regional head of valuations for Southwest Europe, Robert Madas, regional head of valuations for Central and Eastern Europe, and Ulmis Horchidan, cluster head of valuations for Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia, Czechia and Hungary.

Macroeconomic outlook

According to the OECD’s December outlook, global GDP growth has been resilient, up 3.2% in 2025. However, this is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026 before improving again in 2027, up to 3.1%. China is the key contributor to growth, ahead of the US and the Euro area.

Inflation in the EU is coming down slowly but remains above pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. From a point of 2.1% in 2025, headline inflation is expected to fall to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.

This left the consumer price index to reach an all-time high in October last year. Households had to spend more money, which effectively limits larger purchasing decisions. All of this means continued pressure on the automotive market.

This is despite some cautious stabilisation, with demand showing positive signs. Used-car demand has also stabilised with no significant changes recorded in 2025 or expected in 2026.

‘If we look at new-car registrations, we had a slight increase compared to 2024 of approximately 1.5% overall. So, the steep declines of the post-COVID years are over, but it is not a spectacular recovery,’ Madas said.

Meanwhile, tariff risks have eased in some areas, while becoming more challenging in others. For example, negotiations between China and Europe could result in minimum import prices for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs).

Increased emission target flexibility is expected in Europe from the Automotive Package, while electrification continues to progress. But new brands, regulations, and rising costs have increased profitability pressures.

Residual value outlook

RVs continued to fall in 2025. However, this was at a slower pace than in 2024. Only France and the UK saw marginal increases in the final quarter of last year, but values remain under pressure. The market has been undergoing normalisation following the RV inflation between 2021 and 2023.

With used vehicles spending an increasing number of days in stock before sales, there are signs of market saturation. For two-to-four-year-old vehicles, this trend is observed across all powertrains. BEVs still take the longest amount of time to sell, followed by plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).

Price change development reveals price management and the desirability of vehicles. Electric vehicles (EVs), including BEVs and PHEVs, require more price management from dealers than other powertrains. So, what does all this mean for RVs in 2026?

‘Forecasts remain stable and on a path towards normalisation,’ said Azofra.’ This is because the most significant adjustments have already taken place over the past two years. This is the good news.’

RV outlooks for vehicles at 36 months and 60,000km have been maintained for 2026, with only minor adjustments. Spain is the only market which has seen forecasts improve thanks to its greater resilience in 2025.

Austria, France, Spain and the UK can all be expected to see %RVs decline by 1% at most by the end of 2026. While Germany is not far off with a 1.4% decline forecast, Italy’s outlook is the most negative. The market saw a severe downturn in 2025 and is predicted to see a 5.2% decline this year.

Understanding Eastern Europe

Most economies in the CEE region have been growing more quickly than their Western counterparts. GDP has been elevated by integration in the single market, foreign direct investment, supply-chain participation, rising wages and EU funds. This catch-up effect will continue, just at a slower pace than in the 2000’s.

There is reliance on used-car imports across the region, with Germany a primary source for the markets. This influences local pricing and RVs, but has a direct effect on older cars, aged 10 years and older. So, how have %RVs evolved?

‘We see different behaviour when analysing each country from the CEE region. For example, Poland had ample room for adjustments coming from the high values in 2022 caused by the supply crisis,’ said Horchidan.

‘Hungary and Slovakia recorded a steeper depreciation in the last two years, while Romania and the Czechia recovered quite fast after the peak in the pandemic once supply started to catch up with demand,’ he added.

This year, the CEE %RV outlook is unchanged. Declines are expected to continue, just at a slightly more moderate pace. Croatia, Czechia, Slovenia and Romania are forecast to see %RVs fall by between 2% to 2.3%. Meanwhile, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia will see a lower impact, not exceeding 1.6%.

Enjoyed 2026residual value outlook: Regional shifts and trends? Then register for Autovista Group’s next webinar, Europe’s auto forecast 2026: Technology, policy, and EV adoption. It will take place on 1 April 2026 at 09:30 GMT, so make sure you sign up now.