Big European new-car markets push for strong finish in November
10 December 2024
With the end of 2024 in sight, there is a push in major European new-car markets to finish strongly. But which markets are likely to do so after a difficult November? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the numbers.
As the year draws to a close, two of Europe’s biggest new-car markets are continuing to struggle. Meanwhile, another is on course to meet its registrations target for 2024.
Both France and Italy started this year strongly, with impressive passenger-car figures. However, sustained declines have left both in precarious positions. France is almost certain to end the year with negative figures, while Italy could fall into the same position.
For Spain, a target of one million deliveries in 2024 looks achievable, thanks to a continued improvement in registrations. This would be the first time since 2019 that the country has seen its delivery total this high. However, it still needs a strong result in December to be certain of it.
Each market has seen difficulties with battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations in November. Petrol and diesel figures have also fallen. This left it to hybrid models to help inspire market growth and prevent further declines.
France fails to improve
France saw its seventh consecutive month of decline in November. The country’s new-car market has been in freefall since May, wiping out its strong start to the year. The 12.7% drop last month, according to data from the PFA, was the second-worst of 2024.
The country’s year-to-date tally fell into negative growth in August, and results since then have continued to drag. The market’s strong start, with registrations up by 13% in February, has stopped the situation from becoming worse. After 11 months, new-car registrations were 3.7% down compared to the same period in 2023.
To return to growth by the end of the year, the market would need to record 58,968 deliveries next month. This would equate to a year-on-year increase of 32.6%. With the market in serious decline, this seems unlikely.
BEV hardship continues
For the fourth month in a row, the only powertrains to record any year-on-year growth were full hybrids (HEVs) and mild hybrids (MHEVs). This trend has left the market in its precarious position.
Internal-combustion engine (ICE) figures have declined. Meanwhile, the continued fall of the electric vehicle (EV) market is a major concern. This is of particular concern for carmakers worried about meeting the EU’s CO2 targets next year.
BEVs saw registrations fall by 24.4% in November, with 23,255 deliveries, according to Autovista24 calculations. After the 33.1% fall in August, this decline is the second-worst performance of the year.
The result means that BEVs took a 17.4% market share in the month. This is perhaps higher than the volume decline would suggest. However, this share is thanks to poor performances from other powertrains. It is a 2.8 percentage point (pp) decrease compared to November 2023.
Changes ahead
‘The apparent drop in electric registrations is also due to this high comparison base, as they had jumped 52% in November 2023 to reach a market share of 20%. It also masks significant disparities, as several brands such as Renault and Citroën are showing spectacular growth, largely linked to their new models. Meanwhile, the sharp decline of a few, such as Dacia, Tesla and Fiat, is enough to drag the whole into negative territory,’ commented Marie-Laure Nivot, head of automotive market analysis at the French industry association AAA Data.
In the first 11 months of the year, BEV deliveries increased by just 0.1%. This means just 131 additional units. This is some way off the 27.7% improvement seen between January and April. The market share in the year to date sits at 17% of French registrations, up by 0.6pp.
The BEV market could struggle in 2025. The French Government is finalising plans to reduce the current incentives on private purchases. This will take subsidies from up to €7,000, to a figure of up to €4,000. This came into effect on 29 November, although orders where the vehicle will be delivered before February 2025 will benefit from the previous funding.
‘Between the probable anticipations linked to the reduction of the bonus, the wait-and-see attitude with a view to the resumption of social leasing, and the strategic choices of manufacturers before the reduction of average CO2 emissions [in the new EU legislation for 2025], the analysis of the market at the end of this year promises to be particularly complex,’ Nivot added.
Drops for engines
Petrol registrations fell by 31.5% in November, with 33,411 units delivered. This was just 25.1% of the total deliveries in the month, the powertrain’s lowest share of the year so far.
This was down 6.9pp from the same time last year. This dramatic decline leaves the fuel type down by 20.7% in the year to date. It took a 30.2% market share in this period, a decline of 6.5pp.
Diesel also suffered a steep drop in November. Its 8,821 registrations were down 33.3% on November 2023’s tally. This left the technology with a 6.6% market share, down 2.1pp year on year. Between January and November, diesel deliveries dropped 26.8%. This meant a 7.4% share, 2.3pp lower than the same period last year.
Up to hybrids
It was left to HEVs and MHEVs to prevent the market from falling further. Unlike most European markets, France splits its hybrid registrations into the two powertrains.
HEVs enjoyed an 8.2% rise, with 27,482 units equating to a 20.6% market share. This was up 4pp on November 2023. However, the best performance of the month went to MHEVs.
The technology saw growth of 70.6%, with its 24,890-unit total just lower than that of HEVs. This left it with a market share of 18.7%, up from the 9.6% recorded in November 2023.
Across the first 11 months of the year, HEV deliveries rose by 27%, with a 19.1% share up by 4.6pp. MHEVs have seen the best growth of any powertrain, up by 48.1%. Their market share sat at 14.7% for the 11-month period, up from 9.6% in the same time last year.
Yet, not all hybrids performed well. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) declined 19.6% in November, with 11,683 registrations. Its 8.8% market share was down 0.7pp from last year’s figure.
In the year-to-date, PHEV registrations were down 16.6%, with a 7.9% share of the market. This put the powertrain just above that of diesel, but 1.3pp lower than the same period in 2023.
Downward trend in Italy
The Italian new-car market saw one of its worst performances of 2024. No powertrain recorded growth in November, leading to a 10.8% decline in registrations. A total of 124,344 units were delivered in the month, according to industry association ANFIA.
This performance meant that the country’s year-to-date total dipped into negative growth for the first time, with a 0.2% decline across the first 11 months of the year. Like France, Italy has now seen four consecutive months of declines, following a strong start to the year.
‘As we enter the last month of 2024, we can now reasonably confirm that the year-end closing will be just over 1,550,000 total registrations down by approximately 1% compared to 2023,’ commented Roberto Vavassori, president of ANFIA.
Italy has had a rollercoaster year, with improvements and declines mixed throughout 2024. However, Vavassori’s admission that the market will finish with a 1% decline means that ANFIA forecasts another registration drop in December.
Declines everywhere
For the first time this year, every powertrain technology in the country saw losses in the monthly registration data. The smallest loss was in the hybrid market, made up of HEVs and MHEVs, which fell by just 0.3%.
This means the 52,611 units delivered in the month were down by 141 units compared to last year. Its performance in November gave it a 42.3% market share, up by 4.4pp. This was thanks to poor results from other powertrains.
Hybrids have been the best-selling drivetrain in Italy this year. Across the first 11 months of 2024, registrations of the technology were up 10.2%. This equates to a 40% share of the Italian new-car market. This is a jump from the 36.2% share in the same period last year.
Petrol deliveries fell 12.3% in November, with 34,306 units taking to the country’s roads. This gave the fuel type a 27.6% share of overall registrations, dropping 0.5pp.
The decline pulled year-to-date petrol deliveries closer to a negative figure. Between January and November, the market was up 3%. The drivetrain took a 29.3% share, 0.9pp ahead of its market hold from 12 months ago.
Meanwhile, diesel deliveries fell 20.7% in the month, equating to 15,825 units. Italy is one of the few European markets where diesel performs well, but the technology has seen sustained drops recently.
November’s performance left the fuel type with a 12.7% market share, a drop of 1.6pp. Across the first 11 months of 2024, registrations were down 21.5%, with a market share of 13.9%, a decline of 3.7pp.
EVs performing badly
The Italian BEV market has failed to inspire buyers, and November was a poor month for registrations. Figures were down 17.4% year on year, with 6,564 units leaving showrooms.
BEVs took a 5.3% market share, much lower compared to other European countries. This was the lowest of the big five markets in the month, down 0.4pp year on year.
This is the second decline for all-electric models in a row. Despite a boom in June, when incentive funding was released by the country’s government, the technology has had a difficult 2024.
Subsidy funding was depleted within hours, and the market fell to just a 0.6% improvement across the year-to-date. This is just a 342-unit difference, meaning another bad result in December could see BEVs in the negative for 2024.
The technology holds a 4.1% share of Italy’s new-car market over the first 11 months of 2024. This figure has remained stable in comparison to last year.
PHEVs have been the worst-performing powertrain so far this year, and November’s registration results added to these woes. A 31.4% decline saw just 3,912 new models leave showrooms in the month. This resulted in a 3.1% market share, down 1pp.
In the year to date, PHEVs were down 24.9%. They were the leading EV technology in 2023, in terms of volume and market share. However, there has been a lack of interest in the technology this year. Their 3.3% market share, accrued between January and November, is 1.1pp down on the same time last year.
Spain on track
Spain has become one of the most reliable new-car markets among Europe’s big five, a trend that continued into November. A total of 83,339 registrations were recorded by industry association ANFAC last month, 6.4% up on the same time last year.
The country is chasing a million passenger-car registrations in 2024 and could come close to that figure. So far, the country has achieved 911,501 deliveries, meaning it requires 88,499 new passenger cars to take to roads in the country in December.
This would be an 8.2% improvement over December 2023, which may prove difficult unless the industry pushes hard for more registrations in the month.
‘The market is progressing positively and is closing another month with growth. In the last quarter there has been a series of upward trends that allow us to be optimistic about closing the year at around one million units,’ stated Félix García, director of communications and marketing at ANFAC.
‘We will have to wait and see how the last month of the year evolves and whether we surpass the barrier of one million, which has not been achieved since before the pandemic,’ highlighted García.
‘Therefore, we must remind citizens that, currently, they still have funds available in the MOVES plan and that they are valid until the end of this year to purchase electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles. A significant fact that we hope will serve as a lever to boost a national market that is improving compared to last year,’ he added.
Down to hybrids
Spain’s improvement in November owes much to the performance of the hybrid sector, made up of HEVs and MHEVs. It saw growth of 30.4% in the month, with 35,111 units taking to the roads, according to Autovista24 calculations. This gave the powertrain a 42.1% market share, up by 7.7pp, meaning it once again led the country’s new-car market.
The only other category to achieve growth in the country during November was ‘others’, made up of liquified petroleum gas and compressed natural gas vehicles. This powertrain grouping achieved an 11% improvement year on year, with 3,434 units delivered.
The remaining drivetrains declined in the month. Petrol saw a fall of 2.3%, with 27,777 units registered. This gave it a 33.3% share of the market, down 3pp compared to the same month last year.
Diesel also fell, with 6,359 units equating to a 23.5% decline. The 7.6% market share it achieved, although down by 3pp, was still higher than that of BEVs or PHEVs.
Spanish struggles
Like Italy, Spain is struggling to inspire drivers into EVs. This was again evident in the country’s registrations data for November.
BEVs saw a 4.3% decline in the month, with just 5,792 units taking to the roads, based on Autovista24 calculations. This equated to a 7% market share, down by 0.7pp on last year’s November figures.
PHEVs also struggled. Their 4,875 deliveries were 11.5% lower than the total achieved in November 2023. This gave the powertrain a 5.9% market share, down from the 7% achieved last year.
This meant that overall EV registrations were down by 7.7% in November, with its market share dropping 2pp to 12.8%.
