EV growth battles petrol and diesel decline in Germany
08 April 2025
Germany’s new-car market recorded another decline in March. This was despite a spike in plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations. Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, analyses the figures.
New-car deliveries fell for the ninth consecutive month in Germany, with a 3.9% drop in March. However, the total of 253,490 units was also the market’s highest figure since June 2024.
According to the latest figures from the KBA, commercial registrations dropped by 6% year on year. Yet, the sector still made up 66.7% of registrations. Deliveries to private buyers improved by 0.5% and took a 33.3% share of the market.
‘In the first three months of 2025, new-car registrations declined by 4.3% compared to the previous year to a total of 664,564 units,’ explained Robert Madas, Autovista Group’s regional head of valuations.
Registrations fall in Germany
The 4.3% decline means Germany’s new-car market suffered its worst first quarter since 2022. It was outperformed by Spain and the UK, which saw growth in the three-month period. Italy also recorded a better result across the three-month period, despite a decline of its own. Out of Europe’s big five new-car markets, only France fell behind Germany.
‘The negative development of vehicle registrations, compared to the first quarter of the previous year, shows that an economic recovery and thus customer confidence in the purchase of new vehicles has still not been achieved,’ said VDIK president Imelda Labbé.
‘This should be a strong indication to politicians in the coalition negotiations [to form the German government] of the need for sustainable reforms for Germany as a business location,’ she noted.
However, in some areas of the new-car market, there were signs of positivity. ‘Within the declining market, the upper mid-size segment performed particularly strong. It almost doubled its volume compared to the first quarter of 2024 and reached a market share of 5.5%,’ outlined Madas.
‘SUVs also enjoyed positive figures, with an increase of 5.6% in the first quarter, giving the segment a market share of 31.7%,’ he highlighted.
Promising PHEVs
PHEV deliveries surged by 65.8% in March, with 26,553 deliveries. The technology was the best-performing powertrain in terms of year-on-year percentage growth and recorded a gain of 10,537 units year on year.
This was the third consecutive month of double-digit increases for the powertrain. It also marked its biggest improvement since December 2022, when PHEV incentives.
The technology accounted for 10.5% of the new-car market in March, up 4.4 percentage points (pp) compared to one year ago. This was PHEV’s highest share since December 2022.
In the first quarter, the powertrain enjoyed a 41.8% rise in registrations, reaching 63,799 units, according to Autovista24 calculations. It was Germany’s best-performing technology in this period. It captured 9.6% of overall deliveries, up from its 6.5% share during the same period in 2024.
However, it still comfortably remains the country’s least popular powertrain, apart from the ‘others’ category.
Germany’s BEVs blossom
BEV registrations soared by 35.5% in Germany last month, with 42,521 units. This was the technology’s biggest volume total since June 2024. March also marked the third month of consecutive BEV growth, a feat not seen since August 2023.
Excluding all-electric vehicles from the market total, overall deliveries would have suffered a sharper decline of 9.2%. The powertrain made up 16.8% of overall volumes, up 4.9pp year on year. This was the highest BEV share recorded since December 2023, when all private electric vehicle (EV) incentives ended.
Across the first three months of 2025, the technology achieved a 38.9% increase in registrations, with 112,968 units, based on Autovista24 calculations. This was an improvement of 31,631 deliveries compared to one year ago. The volume of all-electric vehicles also sits just over 10,000 units ahead of diesel in the first quarter.
BEVs captured 17% of the total market, up from its 11.7% share recorded in the same period of 2024. This result was 1.5pp ahead of diesel.
Will CO2 targets impact figures?
An amendment to CO2 emission standards submitted by the European Commission could affect BEV figures moving forward.
Carmakers can now average out their emission results for three years across 2025, 2026, and 2027, helping to relieve some pressure. However, Germany’s current BEV share may not be enough to meet the average target of 93.6g/km of CO2.
‘On the one hand, the European Commission’s proposal to extend the deadline for reaching the CO2 fleet limits creates the much-needed flexibility. New registrations of BEVs are increasing. Nevertheless, a share of 16.8% in March is currently far from sufficient to achieve the CO2 targets,’ stated Labbé.
‘Since the limit values continue to tighten every year, the extension of the deadline does not mean a delay in the efforts to ramp up electromobility. What we need from politicians now are long-term and stable framework conditions for higher customer demand so that the goals can be achieved in the future,’ she said.
EVs uphold Germany
Combining BEV and PHEV deliveries, the EV market grew 45.7% in March, with 69,074 units. This was the highest plug-in registration total since December 2023. It also marked three months of consecutive growth, and the biggest monthly improvement since August 2023.
Excluding EVs from the overall market, volumes would have dropped by 14.8% in Germany. Plug-ins represented 27.2% of new-car deliveries last month. This was an increase of 9.2pp year on year, the biggest growth since December 2022.
‘The shares of BEVs and PHEVs have continued to recover. However, it must be taken into account that new registrations fell massively in the first months of 2024 after the expiry of the state subsidy,’ noted Madas.
In the year to date, plug-in volumes grew by 39.9%, equating to a 50,445-unit gain compared to the same period in 2024. EVs accounted for 26.6% of overall deliveries, up from its 18.2% share recorded across the first three months of 2024.
Petrol causes problems
Petrol-powered cars were comfortably the worst-performing powertrain in March. Registrations of the fuel type slumped 29.4% to 70,414 units. This represented a loss of 29,339 deliveries compared to 12 months prior. This was petrol’s biggest year on year percentage decline since December 2021.
Excluding the powertrain from total volumes, the market would have grown by 11.6%. It made up 27.8% of overall registrations, a 10pp drop compared to March 2024. Furthermore, it marked petrol’s lowest share since August 2023.
The result also maintains a streak of the fuel type losing shares month on month consecutively since September 2024.
In the first quarter, deliveries of petrol-powered cars decreased by 26.6%, with 189,683 units, based on Autovista24 calculations. It captured 28.5% of Germany’s new-car market, down from its 37.2% share during the first three months of 2024.
Diesel’s double-digit drops
Diesel-powered cars suffered a 21.7% decline in March, with 37,890 registrations. This marks four consecutive double-digit drops for the powertrain and its biggest decrease since August 2024. However, last month’s figure was also the fuel type’s highest delivery total since July 2024. It took a 14.9% market share, a drop of 3.4pp year on year.
Between January and March 2025, diesel volumes fell by 21.7%, with 102,962 units. It represented 15.5% of overall registrations, down from an 18.9% share during the same period last year.
Adding together the volumes of petrol and diesel, the internal combustion engine (ICE) market slumped by 26.9% in March. This was its biggest monthly percentage drop since May 2022. It also represented the powertrain grouping’s fourth month of double-digit declines, three of which are over 20%.
ICE models accounted for 42.7% of the market, down 13.4pp year on year. This was its lowest monthly share since August 2023.
In the year to date, deliveries dropped by 25%, equating to a loss of 97,392 units. The powertrain grouping made up 44% of overall volumes, down from its 56.1% share recorded in the first quarter of 2024.
Hybrid’s new high in Germany
Hybrid registrations improved by 11.7% in March, reaching 74,860 units. This was the powertrain’s biggest-ever delivery total in Germany and marked seven consecutive months of growth.
The technology took a 29.5% share, up 4.1pp year on year. This made it the country’s most popular powertrain for the third time. Its 1.7pp advantage over petrol last month was its largest-ever market-leading margin.
In the first quarter, hybrid volumes grew by 10.5%, with 192,265 units, according to Autovista24 calculations. It accounted for 28.9% of overall registrations, up from 25%.
Combining hybrid’s performance with the EV total, the electrified market surged by 25.8% in March. It accounted for 56.8% of total volumes, up from its 43.4% share recorded 12 months ago. This result was also 14.1pp ahead of the ICE market.
The powertrain grouping improved deliveries by 22.9% in the first quarter, equating to a gain of 68,783 deliveries. It represented 55.5% of the overall market, up from 43.2%.
Second quarter uncertainty
‘Growth in electric vehicles and hybrids continued in March. Based on the current new orders, we cannot yet be sure whether this trend will continue in the second quarter,’ said ZDK vice president Thomas Peckruhn.
‘This is because the backlog of new vehicles from 2024, which will not be registered by manufacturers until this year to achieve the stricter CO2 fleet values, has not yet been completely reduced. Many private customers are waiting to see what funding signals come from the government coalition that is being formed.
‘One thing must be clear to everyone: electromobility only works as an overall system, from a discounted charging electricity price to a rapid expansion of the charging infrastructure and gradually reducing financial support through purchase premiums. Here, politicians must think holistically and set targeted incentives,’ outlined Peckruhn.
The ‘others’ category, including hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles, natural gas and liquified petroleum gas vehicles, E85/ethanol and other fuels, declined 3.2% in March. The powertrain grouping posted 1,252 registrations, giving it a 0.5% market share, stable from one year ago.
Across the first three months of 2025, the category fell by 35.8%, with 2,887 units. The powertrain grouping made up 0.4% of overall volumes, down 0.2pp year on year.
