How has the European used-convertible market changed?
21 August 2024
The used-convertible market has seen considerable change in many European countries since 2021. Autovista Group experts from France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Switzerland and the UK investigate the subject with Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker.
Convertibles are a unique body type, offering an extra level of immersion and style to the driving experience. Echoing the overall automotive industry, the segment has been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and semiconductor shortage in recent years.
However, arguably the biggest factor affecting the used-convertible market has been the shrinking number of new models available to buyers.
‘The year-on-year decline in the volume of new convertibles is mainly the result of a dwindling supply. Manufacturers have been reducing their new convertible offerings to focus on more environmentally friendly models, which help them to comply better with European regulations,’ commented Ana Azofra, Autovista Group head of valuations and insights, Spain.
‘With such a low volume of new convertibles, the amount of used convertibles on the market is very small and most of the changes can be explained this way,’ she said.
This falling availability of new convertibles has been pronounced in the mass market. ‘In the past years or even decades, more mainstream models like the Volkswagen Golf or the Opel Astra had the option of a convertible variant to have a “lifestyle” offer,’ explained Hans-Peter Annen, head of valuations and insights at Eurotax Switzerland.
‘This has changed in the last few years, as those “additional” or “model enhancing” convertibles have been discontinued, often without a successor. So, we now find the remaining convertibles and coupés are concentrated more in the sporty segment than in the conventional mass-market model ranges’ added Annen.
Volume variation
Used convertibles have seen different performances across Europe, with varied volumes of adverts recorded. Compared to the start of 2021, these volumes declined in Spain and France by almost 25% and 22% respectively. Meanwhile, in the UK, volumes dropped by nearly 15%.
‘In general, the volume of used convertible models has fallen since 2021, as year-on-year there are fewer new models offered by OEMs. The availability tends to increase in the winter months and fall when demand is at its strongest,’ outlined Jayson Whittington, Glass’s chief editor, cars and leisure vehicles.
One reason fewer new convertibles are being filtered into the used market is that the body type may not suit the trend towards electric vehicles (EVs).
‘Convertibles will be less and less available in the used-car market, as there will be fewer new vehicles with a convertible body type due to the EV transition. Convertibles are heavier, offer less range and have less space for a battery,’ stated Ludovic Percier, Autovista Group residual value and market analyst for France.
Increasing supply
However, not all markets are adhering to this declining trend. Switzerland saw the supply of used convertibles increase by over 15%, with stable development forecast for the future. Italy has seen volumes decline by 10%, however, this has remained relatively balanced in the last three years.
‘There have been many fluctuations in this metric since the start of 2021. Considering that average stock days have remained fairly stable, this figure should not be interpreted as a decline in interest in the category. Instead, it should be seen as a return to a more stable market after the various crises faced by the automotive industry since COVID-19,’ said Marco Pasquetti, head of valuations, Autovista Group Italy.
‘Convertibles are a relatively low-volume market, so the possibility that there may be more instability than in other categories must be considered. However, expect volumes to stabilise, at least in the short term,’ he stated.
Future impact
Italy may also see the transition to EVs affect its used-convertible market in the future. ‘To date, the only electric convertible models on sale in Italy are the Fiat 500C, the Mini Cabrio and the Smart Fortwo. As far as sports cars are concerned, there is only the Maserati GranCabrio,’ outlined Pasquetti.
‘Overall, electric convertible volumes are very low, and this could affect the second-hand market in a few years,’ he added.
For France and Austria, lower used convertible volumes are forecast as the segment’s popularity drops. ‘We expect a further volume decrease for used convertibles, as the body type is becoming less and less popular on the new-car market,’ commented Rainer Hintermayer, market analyst at Eurotax Austria.
Declines are predicted over the next few years in the UK too. ‘Used convertible volume will continue to decrease unless OEMs ramp up production. This is unlikely to happen as consumer trends have shifted towards other body styles,’ explained Whittington.
Comparing coupe supply
The coupé segment is also largely populated by premium models and sports cars. It has experienced differing levels of used-vehicle supply in some regions compared with convertibles.
‘After a parallel phase for convertible and coupé body types between 2021 and the middle of 2022, the volume of convertibles has increased whereas coupés have remained stable in Switzerland,’ said Annen.
‘This differing development since the middle of 2022 could be the result of more convertible new cars entering the market than coupés. Therefore, this would mean more used convertibles are on the market,’ he outlined.
However, in some markets like the UK, there is little difference in volume levels. ‘Coupé models have followed a similar pattern to convertibles, although, they do not suffer from seasonal effects,’ stated Whittington.
Increasing car ages
Across all six markets, the average age of used convertibles available for sale has risen. This metric measures the amount of time between a convertible’s new-car registration and the current date.
Combining data from all markets, convertible car age has risen from an average of just over 55 months to nearly 78 months, an increase of just under two years.
The UK has suffered the biggest jump in this segment since 2021, with ages increasing from just under 58 months to around 98 months on average. This means convertibles on offer are over 40 months older than compared to three years ago.
‘The data clearly indicates the average age of used convertible models has increased since 2021. That said, the average of all body styles has also increased significantly. This is likely as a result of lower volumes of registrations in the new car market since the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing the average age of the vehicle parc,’ Whittington commented.
‘However, convertibles are on average the oldest of all body styles. This is due to OEMs ceasing production of many convertible models,’ he explained.
In Switzerland, the age has risen by over two years to around 85 months on average. Meanwhile, available convertibles are 76 months old on average in France, contrasted with an age of just over 56 months at the start of 2021.
Alongside the UK, these three countries recorded the highest increases out of the six markets, while also offering the oldest convertibles on average.
‘In France, drivers were keeping their cars for a longer time as dealerships were postponing their new car sales due to a lack of supply. This has a snowball effect on used-car buyers, as they could not buy cars as there was a lack of supply too,’ explained Percier.
New convertible impact
In Austria, the average age of convertibles has risen by nearly 17 months compared to 2021. ‘This increased age of used convertible may be caused by falling new convertible registrations. [According to Statistik Austria], in 2011, there were 5,258 new convertibles registered, dropping to only 2,100 in 2021 and 1,570 in 2023,’ outlined Rainer.
In Spain, used convertibles have reached an average age of around 72 months, which has grown by nearly 15 months since the start of 2021. This is in line with rising car ages across all body types in this period, as supply has dropped due to the COVID-19 pandemic and semiconductor shortages.
‘In convertibles, this trend is very marked and even more visible as they started from very high average ages. Specifically, they have gone from four to almost six years old. This behaviour is logical, as the sales of used cars have been declining overall and used convertibles will inevitably become older and older,’ Azofra noted.
Italy saw the smallest increase in convertible car age, rising by just over seven months to around 53 months on average. This is also the youngest average age of the six markets.
Differing coupé development
Compared to convertibles, coupés have seen differing developments in this metric depending on the market. In Italy, the average age in this segment has increased by only two months since the start of 2021.
‘There has been a downward trend for coupés from the second half of 2023 onwards, partly thanks to models that are still very successful on the new-car market, such as the Porsche 911. These models lower the average age,’ stated Pasquetti.
‘Another reason for a dropping average age is that there has been a significant reduction in the second-hand volumes of some coupé models that have been out of production for many years,’ he outlined.
However, in Switzerland, an opposite trend has been observed. ‘As expected, both coupé and convertible car ages have increased very similarly, and more than mainstream body types like SUVs,’ commented Annen.
‘As both coupés and convertibles are offered less frequently in the new-car market compared to ten years ago, it is not surprising that the average age has increased more than the overall used-car average,’ he added.
Rising stock days
The average number of days used convertibles spent in stock has risen in all six markets compared to 2021. Yet, this is a more marginal difference in some markets, such as Italy. In this case, convertibles remained in stock for just over 79 days on average. This is around one and a half days more than at the beginning of 2021.
‘On average, convertibles have higher stock days than the market average, since they are niche vehicles that require a little more thought to buy,’ Pasquetti explained.
‘Yet, figures have dropped sharply compared to the beginning of 2024 when used convertibles were in stock for almost 95 days. Overall, however, apart from some fluctuations related to seasonality, this situation is reasonably stable over time,’ he stated.
Seasonality effects
In the UK, average days in stock for all body types have increased in the last three years. For used convertibles, this metric sits at over 59 days in August, up just two days from the start of 2021.
However, due to seasonality, the segment has endured sharp peaks, reaching over 81 days in February this year. Meanwhile, during the summer and autumn months, stock days dropped to around 33 on average.
‘Convertible models tend to take the most days to sell out of all body types, particularly in the winter months. This is unsurprising, as the UK climate is not ideal for convertible ownership in winter, unless of course, it is a model that benefits from a folding metal roof,’ observed Whittington.
The Austrian convertible market has also been affected by seasonality and has evolved similarly to the overall market. In Spain, convertible stock days have increased by around eight days on average in the last three years. This was mainly caused by a jump in August to over 97 days.
‘Convertibles continue to have a very high level of stock retention, which is higher than other body styles. They are expensive models, with high ownership and usage costs. Their remarketing is more complicated compared to other body types,’ said Azofra.
Convertible stock days in France have risen by nearly 12 days since the start of 2021, now sitting at 73 days. Yet, the biggest increase across the six markets was seen in Switzerland. This metric increased by over 20 days with used convertibles spending around 103 days in stock.
Stable price changes
Looking at the average number of price changes for used convertibles, including increases and decreases, all six markets remained stable compared to the start of 2021.
Combining these regions, there were just over two price changes on average, which has risen very slightly from three years ago.
Spain and Italy saw the biggest development in this metric. The former has risen from an average of 2.1 price changes at the start of 2021 to 2.4 in August 2024.
‘On average, used convertibles have seen more price changes in recent years, but this is similar to the other body types. As this is a low-volume segment with fewer models, the entry and exit of a single model can lead to a changing average,’ noted Azofra.
Italy now sits at 2.1 price changes on average, compared to 1.9 three years ago. ‘Here too, the situation is not dissimilar from the market average and is linked to the decline in used-car values. Sellers have had to lower their initial list prices to be able to sell cars in stock that were selling much more easily until the middle of 2022,’ outlined Pasquetti.
Price sensitivity
In Switzerland, average price changes for used convertibles have stabilised. There have been on average around two price changes for models in the segment since the start of 2021.
‘The average number of price changes from 2021 has been constant and slightly below the average of other body types like SUVs. A reason may be that the convertible body style has lost a bit of popularity and therefore is more price-sensitive than the popular SUV market for example,’ commented Annen.
Average price changes in France have also stayed around two, despite a rise across most segments to over three price changes near the start of 2021.
The UK has the highest number of price changes on average for the body type, at just under three. Despite only a marginal change from the start of 2021, convertibles have experienced a peak in this metric of 4.1 during the start of 2024, and a low of two in July 2021.
‘The total number of price changes for convertible models has increased since 2021, although so have all body styles. In terms of seasonal norms, the volume of price changes for convertibles falls in the UK in spring and summer and clearly follows a very different development to other body styles,’ explained Whittington.
An uncertain future
The used-convertible market has been met with many challenges such as declining volumes, rising ages and increasing days in stock. This has been the result of many factors. Alongside COVID-19 and the semiconductor shortage which has affected all body types, fewer new convertible models are available, while more mass-market models are discontinued.
The transition to electric powertrains poses another risk to used convertibles moving forward. With some markets predicting a decline in volume over the next few years, others expect stability. So, convertibles may still enjoy some more time in the sun, depending on the market.
