Monthly Market Update: Are RVs still vulnerable in 2026?
02 March 2026
Residual values (RVs), presented as a percentage of retained new-car list price (%RV), kept sliding in Europe during February. But is this descent slowing, and what comes next? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus unpacks the data with regional experts.
The average retained value of a 36-month-old car at 60,000km dipped again across many European used-car markets. In February, Austria, Germany and Switzerland saw new lows compared with the last 12 months.
Meanwhile, France and Spain saw lower value retention rates in January. At the start of 2026, Italy and the UK saw %RVs above rates recorded in December and August 2025, respectively.
Both France and Spain saw a marginal month-on-month %RV improvement. Meanwhile, Austria, Germany, Italy, Switzerland and the UK recorded declines compared with January 2026.
The downward trend is much more visible when comparing February 2026 with February 2025. All markets saw %RVs decline, with Italy performing the worst. Values dropped to 45.5%, down by 4.1 percentage points (pp) in the country.
While this appears drastic, trade values are still undergoing a process of normalisation following inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared with 2021, all markets continue to see higher levels of value retention.
Switzerland was the closest to its position five years ago, with values only 1.1pp higher. Three-year-old used cars in Germany continue to see higher levels, 4.5pp above where they were in 2021.
%RVs are expected to keep falling across these markets in the next three years. Italy is the only exception, which is forecast to see a marginal increase by the end of 2028. By the same point, France and the UK are expected to see the largest %RV declines of the seven markets.
Austria’s subdued market
Austria’s sales‑volume index (SVI) for two‑to‑four‑year‑old passenger cars recovered significantly in February. After a traditionally weak January, the SVI increased by 52.9% month on month. However, the SVI remained down compared to February 2025, with the index dropping 7.6% year on year.
The active‑market volume index (AMVI) also witnessed a slight bounce back. It rose by 1.4% month on month, while stock levels were 4% higher year on year. This indicates a well‑supplied market and a modest build‑up compared to 2025.
‘Turnover slowed again in February,’ stated Robert Madas, regional head of valuations. ‘The average time needed to sell a used car increased to 76.7 days. This marks a three‑day deterioration compared with January and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 days. This underlined subdued retail activity, despite improved sales volumes.’
Diesel models took the lead in turnover speed, taking an average of 71.5 days to sell. This was followed by petrol cars taking an average of 74.4 days to sell. Then came full hybrids (HEVs) at 78.3 and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) at 87.9 days. Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) continued to take the longest time to sell at 88.7 days.
RVs soften in February
Looking at pricing, the average RV of a 36‑month‑old car at 60,000km softened in February. The average trade RV reached €22,623, down 0.6% month on month.
%RVs in Austria declined to 47.1%, down 0.7 percentage points (pp) compared to January. Year on year, %RVs decreased by 1.4pp, reflecting continued downward pressure on used‑car values amid rising supply and normalising demand. List prices remained high, averaging €47,987 in February, a slight 0.8% increase month on month.
HEVs retained the highest trade value at 50.2%, followed by petrol cars at 49.3%. Then came diesel models with 48% and PHEVs with 43.9%. BEVs held the lowest %RV once again, at 38.8%. However, this was a slight improvement of 0.2pp month on month.
‘Looking ahead, %RVs are expected to decline slightly in the next few years,’ said Madas. ‘In December 2026, a 0.6% year-on-year decline is forecast. A 0.7% decrease in 2027 is expected to follow.
‘This points to a slow but persistent downward %RV trend in the coming years. This is consistent with a rebalancing market environment and ongoing supply normalisation,’ he highlighted.
France sees stability
RVs continued to be stable in France during February. Some powertrains saw slight month-on-month increases, although this was mainly due to a value drop in January. However, February’s results were stable compared with December 2025.
Petrol saw %RVs after 36 months and 60,000km increase compared with January. Yet they fell compared with December. Recent %RV declines for petrol have been minor as the fuel type holds its value better than other powertrains.
‘Many manufacturers offer petrol variants while diesel has become rarer,’ commented Ludovic Percier, senior RV analyst for France. ‘However, diesel has seen less impact, even managing to record %RV increases compared with January.’
HEVs saw stability in February, but their %RVs were below December’s results. This continues a declining value retention trend seen in recent months. This can be attributed to the increasing number of HEVs offered in France, most of which are from mainstream brands.
These models do hold value as well as Toyota’s HEVs. Three of the top five fastest-selling HEVs came from the Japanese brand. Used HEVs are in demand, but carmakers cannot risk adding big price premiums at the expense of RVs.
Supporting EV RVs
Used BEVs and PHEVs took the longest time to sell in France. However, RVs can be supported by newer models with increased ranges. While %RVs increased month on month for both powertrains, they fell compared with December.
PHEV demand and supply remain imbalanced. In previous years, many of these vehicles were sold to fleets on the back of fiscal advantages. They came with excessive new-car market list prices, explaining the lower RVs. Models offering an electric-only range of below 60km have been the most affected.
Higher-priced BEVs with longer driving range have seen larger absolute RVs and more stable %RVs. Lower segments with lower list prices and smaller ranges have been impacted by the environmental bonus and social leasing scheme.
‘Meanwhile, upper segments have not yet been impacted by fiscal fleet advantages,’ Percier added. ‘Those vehicles will come to the used-car market in early 2028.’
BEVs spent 85.5 days in stock on average, compared with the market average of 67.2, which is also high. The Tesla Model 3 was still the quickest to sell, while the Model Y was the third-fastest-selling used BEV. They remain in demand as their new prices drop once again.
Demand rebounds in Germany
Used‑car demand in Germany rebounded significantly in February after the seasonal downturn seen at the start of the year. The SVI jumped to 143, representing a 43% month‑on‑month increase. Despite this strong recovery, the SVI was down 13.7% year-on-year, as demand remained below last year’s level.
Supply conditions also improved. The AMVI rose slightly by 1.1% from January. Year on year, stock availability was 22.6% higher, confirming a continued and substantial rebuild of used‑car supply.
‘The average number of days needed to sell a used car increased to 68.3 days. This was a noticeable deterioration of 3.3 days month on month and year on year,’ highlighted Madas.
Looking at powertrain performance, BEVs were the fastest-selling technology, taking 61.6 days to leave forecourts. Then came PHEVs at 62.4 days. HEVs followed at 63.2 days, while diesel-powered vehicles took 69.9 days to sell. Petrol-powered cars sold the slowest, at 70.9 days.
Renewed pressure on RVs
RVs came under renewed pressure in February. The average %RV of 36‑month‑old cars at 60,000km declined slightly to 46.8%. This was down 0.1pp month on month and 0.9pp year on year.
In contrast, absolute trade values increased slightly to €21,855, a 1% improvement from January. This was supported by the continued rise in list prices, which climbed to €46,664. This was up 1.1% compared to January and up 4.2% year on year.
By powertrain, petrol-powered cars continued to lead with a %RV of 48.3%, followed closely by diesel at 48.2% and HEVs at 47.5%. PHEVs held on to 44.1% of their value, while BEVs remained the lowest at 37.1%, maintaining the gap observed throughout 2025.
Looking ahead, RVs are expected to remain under pressure, in line with previous forecasts. By the end of 2026, %RVs are projected to decline by 1.4% compared with December 2025.
‘Pressure is predicted to ease somewhat in 2027, with a smaller decline of 0.9% expected. This indicates ongoing RV strain, driven by recovering supply, normalising demand, and elevated list prices,’ Madas outlined.
Values fall in Italy
‘As expected, RVs continued to decline in Italy during February, in line with the trend observed in 2025,’ said Marco Pasquetti, cluster head of forecasting for Spain and Italy.
%RVs after 36 months and 60,000km stood at 45.5%. This corresponds to a decrease of 0.7pp compared to January and a drop of 4.1pp year on year. There are no signs of this trend reversing, with the downward trajectory likely to persist throughout 2026. By December, %RVs can be expected to decline by 6.2% overall.
There were no surprises across the various powertrains. All of them saw proportionally consistent declines in line with the overall market trend. Diesel, although declining, remained the technology with the best retention of list price value at 50.1%.
In terms of volume, it also continues to be in high demand on the used‑car market. This is likely due to signals from some manufacturers that they are considering reinvesting in these engines, including Stellantis.
The average time required to sell a used vehicle on major online marketplaces improved compared to January 2026 and February 2025. In particular, the year-on-year improvement is notably positive for BEV and PHEV vehicles. If this trend continues, it could indicate a slowdown in the decline of RVs for these powertrains.
Bad start for Spain’s used-car market
New-car sales in Spain began 2026 with a slight increase of 1% compared to January 2025. Electric vehicles (EVs), including BEVs and PHEVs, showed strong momentum.
Sales of these powertrains increased by nearly 50% as they represented over a fifth of the new-car market. By channel, private buyers and companies recorded significant declines. Only rental companies saw their registrations increase, up by 63.5%.
These rent-a-car renewals have returned a significant volume of young used vehicles to the market. This made it the only channel to record positive results compared with January 2025.
‘Overall, the start of the year has not been good for used-car sales, which fell by 9%,’ noted Ana Azofra, head of valuations and insights for Spain.
‘BEVs and PHEVs continue to gain share, benefitting from growing demand for electrified alternatives,’ she added. ‘This increased interest is reflected in the evolution of average transaction prices, with increases across all electrified powertrains.’
Average absolute RVs of 36-month-old BEVs and PHEVs at 60,000km saw month-on-month increases of 5.3% and 8%, respectively. Only petrol vehicles suffered a slight month-on-month decrease in their average absolute RV, down 0.5%.
Although the overall situation is positive, used cars saw a longer turnover rate compared with January 2026 and February 2025. The only exception was BEVs, which sold 13.3 days faster than 12 months ago. Despite this, the powertrain still took the longest time to sell.
The model with the best rotation times in February was the Dacia Sandero, with an average rotation of 42.4 days. Then came the Volkswagen T-Roc with 51.2 days, and the Toyota Corolla with 53.5 days.
Switzerland sees weaker RVs
Used‑car demand in Switzerland made a good recovery in February. The SVI surged by 48.5% month on month. Despite this rebound, demand remained 2.1% lower year on year, indicating continued pressure compared to early 2025.
Supply conditions softened slightly. The AMVI fell by 2.3% month on month but remained 5% above last year’s level. This confirms that stock availability is still higher than in early 2025 despite the temporary dip.
‘%RVs weakened in February,’ Madas commented. ‘The average %RV of a 36‑month‑old car at 60,000km dropped to 41.7%, down 0.8pp month on month and 2.9pp year on year. This underlines the ongoing depreciation pressure in the Swiss used‑car market.’
In absolute terms, trade RVs decreased slightly to CHF 26,501 (€29,062), a 0.9% month‑on‑month decline. Yet, this was still 0.9% higher year on year.
List prices continued to rise, averaging CHF 63,610, representing a 1.2% increase month on month and an 8.1% rise year on year. This ongoing inflation in list prices helps support absolute used‑car values, even with falling %RVs.
HEVs still on a high
HEVs retained the most value of any powertrain in February by far at 46.7%. Then came petrol-powered cars at 43.2%, diesel-powered models at 41.5% and PHEVs at 39.7%. BEVs continued to be the worst-performing technology, holding only 35.5% of their original list price.
The average time to sell a used car increased marginally in February, rising to 77.9 days. This was 0.4 days slower month on month, but still a strong 4.3‑day improvement year on year. This reflects better turnover conditions than in early 2025.
HEVs sold fastest at 69.4 days, followed by BEVs at 75 days. This was followed by diesel cars at 77.2 days and petrol-powered models at 78.6 days. PHEVs which took 82 days to leave forecourts.
Looking ahead, %RVs are forecast to decrease further in the coming years, but at a slower pace. By the end of 2026, %RVs are expected to fall by 1.4% compared to December 2025. A further 0.5% drop is anticipated in 2027.
UK sees strong growth
‘The UK’s used-car market recorded strong growth in February 2026,’ commented Jayson Whittington, regional head of valuations for the UK. ‘Overall, there was a clear upswing in sales momentum, led by electrified powertrains. However, pricing pressures remained evident across most fuel types.’
All fuel types posted positive month-on-month SVI gains. On average, the metric was up by 25% across all powertrains, highlighting broad demand.
BEVs led the market with a 29.8% rise, closely followed by PHEVs at 29.6%. HEVs recorded a 26.3% increase, reflecting strong consumer interest in electrified choices.
Petrol models performed well with a 24.8% month-on-month increase, driven by continued affordability and availability. Diesel, while posting the lowest rise at 16.1%, still demonstrated strong growth for a fuel type facing long-term declines.
Despite the uplift in retail activity, the overall time taken to sell a used vehicle increased by 2.7 days to 46 days. BEVs once again led the way, taking an average of 37.4 days to sell. They were supported by fast-turning models, including the Tesla Model Y at 22.6 days and the Volvo C40 at 23.7 days.
%RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km were more mixed. Month on month, the overall %RVs slipped 0.8pp to 49.1%. The value retention of petrol-powered cars fell by 0.8pp as well, to 50.5%. Meanwhile, PHEV %RVs softened by 1.1pp to 46.2%. HEVs declined marginally by 0.2pp to 53.2%. BEVs saw the steepest drop, by 1.6pp to 35.2%. Diesel was the only segment to improve, rising by 1.7pp to 57.4%.
