Monthly Market Update: What happened to used-car values at the end of 2024?
09 January 2025
How did residual values (RVs) perform at the end of last year, and what used-car market factors drove their development? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus explores 2024’s final figures with Autovista Group experts.
Many of Europe’s major used-car markets saw residual values follow a declining trend across 2024. In December, Austria, Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland all hit new lows for 2024. Only the UK saw RVs, presented as a percentage of retained new-car list price (%RVs), bounce back, albeit only slightly.
The %RV of a three-year-old car at 60,000km hit 46.4% in Switzerland in December, down from 49.5% a year ago. Austria’s values sat at 47.7%, down by 5.3 percentage points (pp) year on year. Italy’s values fell by 4pp to 48.7%. Values in Germany were only slightly higher at 49.6%, down from 54.1% recorded in the same month of 2023.
Meanwhile, the UK saw %RVs reach 51% at the end of 2024. This was up from a low of 50.1% in July, but down from 55.6% in December the previous year. Three-year-old used cars retained 53.9% of their original list price in France last month. Spain recorded one of the highest %RV levels at 58.7%. However, this was down by 2.6pp year on year.
Values under pressure in 2024
Under normal circumstances, such a downward trend might be cause for concern. However, the conditions under which European used-car markets have operated in recent years have been far from normal.
Supply and demand have been at odds amid challenging global events. The COVID-19 pandemic prevented the production of new units, prompting consumers and businesses to hold onto their current vehicles. Supply to the used-car market dried up, while demand for personal transportation continued to rise.
Many European markets saw residual values inflated to extraordinary levels between 2021 and 2022. It was not until 2023 that RVs began to show signs of stabilising. As the world emerged from lockdown and new cars became available, the used-car market started to see more stock.
As the scales of supply and demand moved yet again, RVs began to deflate. Therefore, the current downward trend can be thought of as market normalisation. However, this process is far from over as values as still relatively high.
%RVs in Italy were 8.9pp higher last month than in December 2020. Spain saw a similar result with levels up 8.4pp. Germany was up by 7.3pp, Switzerland and France were up by 5.9pp. The UK and Austria saw higher levels by 4.6pp and 4.3pp respectively.
So, what does 2025 hold for RVs? With global political upheaval, international conflicts, as well as the transition to cleaner and smarter mobility, there are many influencing factors.
Slower drop expected in Austria
Following an increase in November, Austria’s sales-volume index (SVI) dropped in December. The number of observed sales fell by 6.6% month on month. However, the SVI was 6.2% higher year on year.
Meanwhile, the active-market volume index (AMVI) of two-to-four-year-old passenger cars remained almost stable in December compared to November. However, this means that the supply volume of passenger cars in this age bracket slumped by 10.9% compared to the previous year.
‘At 70.5 days, the average amount of time needed to sell a used car increased in December. This was around two days longer than November,’ said Robert Madas, Eurotax regional head of valuations, Austria, Switzerland, and Poland.
Diesel vehicles continued to be the fastest-selling powertrain, averaging 60.1 days last month. This was followed by plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) at 73 days, petrol vehicles at 76.6 days and full hybrids (HEVs) at 82.3 days. Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) took the longest amount of time to sell at 84.2 days.
The average %RV of a 36-month-old car at 60,000km in Austria decreased slightly to 47.4% in December. This was a 0.3pp drop compared to the previous month and a 5.3pp drop year on year.
HEVs retained the greatest amount of trade value in November at 51.7%, followed by petrol cars (50.1%). Then came diesel models (46.9%) and PHEVs (44.6%). BEVs again retained the lowest amount of value, at 41.2%.
In the coming years, %RVs are expected to fall, but at a slower pace. This is due to weakening demand and unwavering supply. By the end of 2025, %RVs are expected to decrease by 2.2%. In 2026, a slight year-on-year drop of 1.1% is expected.
Stability for values in France
‘RVs remained quite stable in France during December. Some powertrains saw slight value increases, mainly due to the higher list prices of observed vehicles,’ explained Ludovic Percier, Autovista Group residual value and market analyst for France. Petrol %RVs fell in the month, although values were relatively stable in November.
Diesel was also stable in December, with some models enjoying marginal increases in RVs. Used demand has remained for the fuel type, as volume and model offerings have shrunk on the new-car market. This has cemented diesel’s position as the fastest-selling powertrain on the French used-car market.
HEV values were consistent in December, with the time needed to sell a used model falling by almost four days. The powertrain is still appreciated in the new and used-car markets, providing stable RVs.
‘The technology is currently the best compromise between full internal-combustion engine (ICE) models and BEVs. There is no need to plug in, and some small HEVs are becoming more affordable,’ added Percier.
Slower selling powertrains
PHEVs were the second slowest-selling powertrain. However, greater ranges on newer models may help bolster RVs. There is still an oversupply of PHEVs on the used-car market, as high new-list prices explain the poor value retention.
With their values taking the greatest drop compared to November, BEVs saw the lowest RVs. The powertrain also took the longest amount of time to sell.
Tesla had the fastest-selling all-electric cars, while other brands struggled to find customers. The powertrain is stagnating in the new-car market, even as brands are pushed by the government to sell more BEVs. However, the used-car market is becoming saturated, with not enough potential buyers.
In December 2023, BEV purchase incentives became dependent on lifetime carbon emissions, making some vehicles ineligible. However, used models were still too expensive, causing prices to drop month after month. Where demand does not meet supply, RVs fall and prices slump.
Building pressure on values in Germany
Following a slight decrease in October and November, Germany’s SVI increased in December. Compared to the previous month, this metric was up 2.8%. However, levels were still down 9.1% year-on-year.
The AMVI, covering two-to-four-year-old passenger cars, increased by 5% compared to November. The supply volume of passenger cars in this age bracket dropped by 27.6% compared to the previous year.
The average number of days needed to sell a used car increased to 61 days in December. PHEVs sold the fastest at 56.9 days, followed by diesel at 58 days. Then came BEVs after 59.9 days. They were followed by HEVs after 62.6 days and petrol cars after 64.3 days.
Following weak demand, the RV of a 36-month-old car at 60,000km fell slightly in December. Models retained an average of 49.6% of their original list price, a drop of 0.4pp on November. This equated to a considerable decline of 4.5pp year-on-year, showing that pressure on RVs is increasing.
‘HEVs led the market with a %RV of 52.2%,’ highlighted Madas. ‘Then came petrol cars at 51.5%, diesel models at 50.2% and PHEVs at 45%. BEVs retained the lowest level of value at 38.2%.’
As demand drags and supply persists, values can be expected to come under even more pressure. In 2025, %RVs are forecast to decrease, down 2.6% when compared with December 2024. Pressure is expected to ease in 2026, and RVs will show a declining trend of 1.4%.
Italian values down
‘December held no surprises for the Italian used-car market,’ said Marco Pasquetti, head of valuations, Autovista Group Italy. ‘A trend observed throughout 2024 was confirmed, namely, all powertrains saw a sharp drop in RVs.’
Last month, the average %RV hit 48.7%. This was down from the 52.7% recorded in December 2023. BEVs suffered the greatest year-on-year drop of 5pp, hitting 30.5% on average. Average absolute values fell by €1,525, down 10.1%.
PHEVs also saw a significant drop in %RVs, down to 44.3% from 51% a year ago. This demonstrates how much the powertrain is struggling to gain a foothold in Italy. The country’s new-car market is also struggling to integrate BEVs.
Across 2024, ANFIA data shows that all-electric models made up 4.2% of registrations, exactly the same as in 2023. Meanwhile, PHEV’s share shrank from 4.4% in 2023 to 3.3% last year.
In 2025, RVs can be expected to keep falling, albeit at a slower pace than in 2024. Values will likely drop by 3.7% on average. However, much could change depending on the EU’s emission targets which are set at an average of 93.6 grams of CO2 per km across a carmaker’s fleet this year.
To avoid being fined, some carmakers might produce and sell fewer cars ICE-powered models. The used-car market could see demand increase as a result, which will in turn support RVs.
‘It is still too early to tell what will happen next,’ Pasquetti said. ‘Any incoming support for new-car sales could have the opposite effect. Therefore, the market will be under close observation in the coming months.’
Spain above the million mark
Spain saw its new-car market achieve over 100,000 registrations in December according to industry association ANFAC. This pushed the 2024 total above the one million mark for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. The country’s automotive industry will be hoping this momentum can be maintained throughout 2025.
The rental channel was undoubtedly the primary driver of growth, with sales up 119.4% in December and 36.8% across 2024. Additionally, the final quarter of the year saw companies prepare their fleets for the upcoming emission regulations.
‘Deliveries to private buyers only increased slightly,’ noted Ana Azofra, Autovista Group head of valuations and insights, Spain. ‘However, a portion of last month’s growth resulted from the devastating floods in Valencia.
‘As more than 120,000 cars were destroyed, some consumers were left with no choice but to replace their cars. Assistance plans from brands and the state remain in effect in the affected communities,’ Azofra added.
Lastly, the electrification of the Spanish market remains slow. According to ANFAC, 11.4% of new-car deliveries were BEVs and PHEVs last year, down from 12% in 2023. So, this year is likely to be a challenging one. For one thing, the industry will be trying to comply with the 25% share target under the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations.
A consistent ratio for Spain
The official 2024 figures for Spain’s used-car market are still pending. However, these are expected to exceed 10% growth compared with 2023. This will mean there were double the number of used-car transactions compared to new registrations. Therefore, the ratio will remain roughly the same, with 2.1 used vehicles sold for every new car delivered.
‘The task at hand is to reshape the country’s used-car market,’ Azofra said. ‘This means moving younger, safer and more sustainable models, with greater guarantees in the hands of professionals.’
Spain has seen some of the most resilient transaction prices, not only in the last quarter but across 2024. December even saw a slight price increase from November, with ICE-powered models enjoying an upswing. Meanwhile, other powertrains experienced slightly negative adjustments due to a considerable rise in electric stock.
In 2025, ICE models can be expected to see a more negative trend. This will be mirrored slightly by BEVs and PHEVs, while hybrid transaction prices remain stable.
Supply falls again in Switzerland
‘Used-car supply had returned to the pre-COVID-19 level in Switzerland, but incoming stock is now falling again. Increased living costs have also come down from 2023. However, new-car registrations continue to be very weak, unable to bounce back,’ said Madas.
The AMVI decreased significantly by 6.6% from November to December 2024. Compared to 12 months ago, this indicator slumped by 13.4%. The SVI also fell by 1.6% month on month and 1.5% year-on-year.
Influenced by constant supply and declining demand, RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km dropped again. %RVs values fell to 46.4% in December from 46.8% in November. However, the year-on-year drop was more severe, down 3.1pp from values recorded 12 months ago.
HEVs retained the most value in December by far with a %RV of 51.1%. Then came petrol cars (47.6%), diesel models (45.1%) and PHEVs with 43.8%. BEVs were once again the worst-performing powertrain, retaining only 40.7% of their original list price.
December saw two-to-four-year-old passenger cars sell slightly quicker than in November, spending 81.9 days in stock on average. Hybrid cars sold fastest at 68.1 days, followed by petrol cars at 77.6 days and diesel cars at 79.3 days. PHEVs took 94.2 days, while BEVs needed the most time to sell with 98.9 days on average. This represented a significant year-on-year decrease of 6.9 days.
‘In 2024, the values of three-year-old cars kept falling, down by 6.3% year on year. This was still from a relatively high starting point at the end of 2023,’ Madas explained.
By the end of the year 2025, used-car values are expected to decline again by 3.7%. A trend of relatively stable supply and low demand will continue as various uncertainties shroud 2025. For 2026, a lower year-on-year drop of 1.5% is expected.
Values remain relatively high in UK
‘The average %RV of a three-year-old car fell to 51% in the UK during December 2024,’ highlighted Jayson Whittington, Glass’s chief editor, cars and leisure vehicles. ‘This was down from 55.6%, recorded 12 months prior.’
However, a reasonable proportion of the fall occurred in January, following poor trading conditions at the close of 2023. From December 2023 to January 2024, %RVs fell by 2.3pp. This came in a month when values would normally be expected to rise by 2pp due to the plate-change effect.
The UK used-car market improved throughout the first six months of 2024. By the end of June %RVs had only fallen a further 1.8pp from January, hitting 51.5%. The summer months are often lacklustre for car retailers as customers turn their attention to the holiday season. However, this year was different.
Retail activity was reportedly strong, with dealers needing to replenish stock more frequently. As a result, auction activity was buoyant, so hammer prices did not suffer the usual large summer swings. This gave dealers the confidence to buy for stock, instead of just replenishing what was sold.
This coincided with a noticeable drop-off in fresh stock hitting auction centres, a hangover from when new-car supply was constrained three years earlier. This led to a stabilisation in values with less depreciation than usual. Between July and December, RVs actually increased by 0.9pp.
Overall, values have fallen over the past two years. %RVs dropped by 6.2pp year on year in 2023 and 4.6pp this year. However, figures remain ahead of the average RV in December 2020, just before values rose sharply. At 51%, the current average %RV of a three-year-old car still exceeds the 46.4% recorded in December 2020.
