The Automotive Update: Hope for Europe’s new and used-car markets?
02 April 2026
How will new-car markets transform over the course of 2026? Plus, what is happening with used-car supply and demand in Europe? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus finds out in the latest Automotive Update podcast.
In this episode, Autovista24 reviews the latest JD Power webinar, which explored Europe’s new-car outlook. Plus, a look into the latest residual value (RV) trends in the continent’s used-car market.
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Outlook for European automotive markets
This week, JD Power hosted its latest webinar: Europe’s Auto Forecast 2026: Technology, Policy, and EV Adoption.
The session covered Europe’s new-car market outlook from 2026 to 2040 across multiple powertrains. Panellists also delved into the bloc’s diverging electric vehicle (EV) adoption and the factors behind it. Plus, the webinar reviewed upcoming technologies and emerging brands expanding across the continent.
Attendees were asked how much they thought Europe’s new-car market would grow, or shrink, by the end of this year. 40% of respondents expected a year-on-year improvement between 0% and 2% compared to 2025.
This matched the latest EV Volumes forecast, which projected a 0.2% increase in its March update. However, this was reduced from the 1.5% growth forecast in its December report.
The March update also projected overall growth for European light-vehicle sales, which includes new cars and light-commercial vehicles. In 2026, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% is forecast, down from 1.7% in the previous report.
The panel also discussed varying EV adoption rates in the bloc. They identified key structural differences that are either limiting or assisting plug-in uptake.
Furthermore, the experts showed how, in some instances, EVs are closing the price gap to internal-combustion engine models. This comes as the choice of small EVs on the new-car market continues to widen.
Positivity for used-car markets?
JD Power experts forecast year-on-year RV declines across European used-car markets in the latest Monthly Market Update.
In Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK, values are expected to decline by the end of 2026. However, these drops are expected to be slight.
A drop is also projected across all observed markets in 2027. This is the case in 2028 as well, except for Italy, with marginal growth forecasted.
RVs became inflated during the COVID-19 pandemic when supply was low, but demand was high. As these drivers balanced out, values underwent a period of normalisation.
In March 2026, the active-market volume index (AMVI) for 24-to-48-month-old used cars showed year-on-year growth in every observed market. When compared to February 2026, only the UK suffered a marginal downturn, with a slight 1.1% dip in supply.
The sales-volume index (SVI) of 24-to-48-month-old cars also increased compared with March 2025. This trend occurred in six of the seven observed markets, except for Italy, which recorded a 1.1% decline. Month-on-month results were more mixed, as single-digit drops were recorded in France, Italy and the UK.
If supply continues to outpace demand, RVs will face increased pressure, with more units available and fewer potential buyers.
