How will global EV markets perform in 2024 and beyond?
10 May 2024
What can be expected from global electric vehicle (EV) markets in the coming years? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus and special content editor Phil Curry discuss the latest forecasts from EV Volumes.
EV markets across the world are seeing mixed performances. Sales figures look good in certain regions, while others lag. But what does the future hold for light vehicle EV markets?
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Show notes
Global EV growth forecast in 2024, but challenges remain
Growth forecast for European EV market despite incentive impact
How is the global market performing?
Analysing the latest registrations data and market movements, Neil King head of forecasting at EV Volumes (part of J.D. Power), has laid out his latest expectations for global EV markets. These forecasts cover the light-vehicle market, which encompasses sales of new passenger cars and new light-commercial vehicles.
The global light-vehicle EV market grew by 35% in 2023, with 14.2 million units sold around the world. This gave the technology, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) a 16.7% market share, up from 13.6% the year before.
For the first time, PHEVs grew at a faster rate than BEVs. Plug-in hybrid sales grew by 47% year on year, compared to all-electric vehicles climbing 30%.
In 2024, EV Volumes expects 16.6 million EV sales globally, growing 17% year on year. This result would give the plug-in sector a 19.2% share of the light-vehicle market. Accounting for all powertrains, the wider new light-vehicle market is expected to increase by just 1%.
However, this global EV share forecast has been lowered compared to previous outlooks and sits 1.2 million units down from earlier forecasts. There is a more cautious approach to figures for China, while slower uptake in the US has affected the North American market. Slight downward adjustments have also been made for the European and non-Triad markets, due to subsidy cuts and economic frailty respectively.
In the years ahead, the EV market is expected to double, with 29 million sales forecast in 2027. However, the EV share of the market is lower than originally expected, hitting 22.6% in 2025 and 35% in 2028. From 2029, the plug-in share is expected to be higher than previously forecast, due to healthier uptake in the non-triad regions.
Market analysis
In Europe, light-vehicle EV volumes are forecast to grow by 18% year on year in 2024, with 3.7 million sales projected. The continent will see its EV market share rise to 29% in 2025, before the technology becomes a dominant force, with a 58% share in 2029.
China will see PHEVs capture a higher share of the market in 2024, with domestic suppliers rolling out numerous new models. However, a BEV price war will see the powertrain gain ground from 2025 onwards. Therefore, EVs are forecast to account for 43% of sales in 2025, rising to 62% in 2029.
The comparatively slower recovery of the North American automotive market, means EV Volumes has lowered its share and volume forecasts in the short term. Additionally, revised emissions targets set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), mean the medium and long-term forecasts have also been lowered.
EVs in North America are now expected to reach a 12.7% share of light-vehicle sales in 2024. This will increase to 16.5% in 2025, before hitting 35% in 2029.
Accounting for a third of the global automotive market, the non-triad regions are affecting EV uptake figures. Poor performances in markets such as India, Japan, Brazil and Mexico are weighing down the global average. For 2024, a share of 4.9% has been forecast, with sales of around 1.4 million.
The EV share is expected to rise to 6.5% in 2025, and 14.5% in 2029. These low figures mean the market will trail global EV adoption by around six years.
