Autumn Budget implications for UK LCV market
12 November 2024
The UK’s light-commercial vehicle (LCV) market grew in October, but the Autumn Budget will have many implications. Andy Picton, chief commercial vehicle editor at Glass’s, reviews the data with Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker.
A total of 26,974 LCVs were delivered to UK customers in October, an increase of 2.4% year on year. This marks three months of consecutive growth and the market’s best October in three years.
In the year to date, the UK LCV market recorded 294,313 registrations, up 3.5% on the same period in 2023.
Demand was up across almost all LCV segments compared to 12 months ago. Two exceptions were pickups and vans weighing between 2.5 and 3.5 tonnes gross-vehicle weight (GVW). Last month, these two categories endured 18.9% and 2.7% declines respectively.
Despite the fall, vans weighing between 2.5 and 3.5 tonnes GVW remained the most popular LCV sector. The body type took a 65.6% market share in October with 17,683 deliveries.
New vans weighing below 2 tonnes GVW surged 55.9%, reaching 683 registrations. Meanwhile, LCVs weighing between 2 and 2.5 tonnes GVW recorded 5,688 deliveries. This was a rise of 49.6% compared to October 2023.
Autumn Budget implications
The Autumn Budget confirmed that double-cab pickups would be taxed as cars for benefit-in-kind and capital allowances. Effective as of April 2025, this will have a significant impact on the sector and could be a final blow.
The move will likely cause order cancellations or further costs. This will affect the farming, construction and utilities industries as well as the self-employed on rely on these vehicles.
The budget statement was also unclear about electric double-cab pickups. If these models are offered with a payload of more than 1 tonne GVW, they could also be penalised. New registrations of pickups were down 4.3% across the first 10 months of the year compared to 2023.
Transit triumphant again
Ford dominated the best-sellers table again in October, claiming the top two positions. The Transit Custom finished in first place, reaching 3,400 registrations, followed by the Transit in second with 2,921 deliveries. It also placed the Ranger pickup in fifth which posted 1,407 registrations.
Stellantis Pro One, the OEMs commercial division, had a positive month with four models in the top 10. The Peugeot Partner took third with 1,821 deliveries, while the Vauxhall Combo secured sixth (1,287 units). The Peugeot Expert placed seventh (1,175 units) and the Vauxhall Vivaro took ninth (895 units).
In fourth came the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter, reaching 1,553 registrations. The Renault Trafic took eighth with 1,065 deliveries and the Volkswagen (VW) Crafter finished 10th, reaching 839 registrations.
Year-to-date, the Ford Transit Custom continued to comfortably lead the way, with 38,917 deliveries. It was over 12,000 units ahead of its nearest competitor, the Ford Transit with 26,438 registrations. The brand completed the top three, as the Ranger reached 16,819 deliveries from January to October.
The only position change in the top 10 came in eighth. After a strong performance, the Peugeot Partner moved up two spots with 11,091 registrations. This was at the cost of the Citroën Berlingo, which fell two positions to 10th with 10,533 deliveries.
Bounce back for BEVs?
Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations in the LCV market surged 57.3% last month, with 2,143 registrations up to 3.5 tonnes GVW. This was the first time in five months the technology has seen demand increase. It also marks an improvement of nearly 800 units compared to October 2023. BEVs took a 7.9% market share last month, up 2.7 percentage points (pp) year on year.
However, from January to October, a total of 15,087 BEVs were delivered in the UK. This equates to a drop of 3.6% on the same period last year and a loss of 571 units. The powertrain accounted for 5.1% of all LCV registrations in the first 10 months of the year, falling 0.4pp.
As announced in the Autumn Budget, the plug-in van grant will be extended for a further year. This has been welcomed, on top of the additional allocation of £120 million in funds.
Although this will assist consumers looking to transition to BEVs, it will not cause a massive rise in electric van sales alone. Currently, high prices, a lack of van-specific infrastructure and a shortage of effective support are reasons why fleet operators do not see the move to electric as commercially viable.
Powerful Peugeot performance
Peugeot captured 35% of the BEV LCV market in October, with 755 deliveries. Then came VW with 273 registrations (12.7% share) and Toyota with 236 units (11% share). Ford finished fourth last month reaching 203 deliveries (9.5% share), while Renault secured fifth with 174 registrations (8.1% share).
In terms of models, the Peugeot e-Partner took the top spot, posting 405 deliveries. Its sibling, the e-Expert, followed in second with 350 registrations. The VW ID.Buzz Cargo van placed third with 273 deliveries. The Toyota Proace City Electric finished fourth with 231 registrations and the Ford E-Transit Custom took fifth with 203 deliveries.
The Renault Kangoo E-Tech secured sixth, reaching 167 registrations. The Nissan Townstar EV finished seventh (82 units) and the Mercedes-Benz eVito eighth (70 units). Then came the Vauxhall Vivaro Electric (46 units) and the Vauxhall Combo Electric (45 units).
ZEV mandate implications
Only four manufacturers looked to be on track to meet the minimum 10% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate sales share target for 2024. After the 10 months of the year, this included BYD (100% share), Peugeot (15.3% share), Nissan (13.6%) and Maxus (12.3% share).
Toyota was not far behind at 8.6%. Vauxhall (7.2% share), VW (6.6% share) and Renault (5.4%) were further away still. The other brands in the top 10, Mercedes-Benz and
Citroën, still have work to do. BEVs made up 4.9% and 4.8% of their LCV sales respectively.
An additional 120 BEVs from Ford, Iveco, Maxus, Mercedes-Benz, Peugeot, Renault and Renault Trucks weighing between 3.5 tonnes and 4.25 tonnes GVW were delivered as part of the vehicle emissions trading scheme.
This is compared with 37 registrations in the same category during October last year. The extra volume contributed towards an overall market share of 8.4% for last month. However, year-to-date demand has dropped 1.9% compared to 12 months ago. BEVs took a market share of 5.6% from January to October, with 16,451 deliveries.
Meanwhile, the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) van market continues to grow slowly, with 534 registrations recorded last month. This consisted of 359 deliveries of Ford Transit Custom PHEVs and 175 units of Toyota Corolla Commercials.
In the first 10 months of the year, the two vehicles achieved 1,652 and 916 registrations respectively, while LEVC recorded three deliveries of its VN5 van.
High mileage stock ignored
Finding used LCVs at auction is not currently an issue, but finding quality stock is. As buyers fight over the best examples, much of the harder worked and higher mileage stock is being ignored. Nicer, cleaner vehicles that can be turned around more quickly are instead being favoured.
Vendors now seem to be more accustomed to market sentiment, resulting in a significant improvement in conversion rates over the last couple of months. However, retail buyers continue to see higher finance rates affect their buying power. This is resulting in vehicles not being replaced as regularly.
The number of vehicles sold during October was stable from September but increased by 7.5% compared to 12 months ago.
The average selling price fell by 9.2% over the month and 21.5% year on year. This was due to a poor combination of volume, mileage and condition. Yet, the used-LCV market remains buoyant. On average, selling prices were 19.2% higher than in October 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Out of all LCVs sold at auction in October, 74.1% were Euro 6 at an average age of 58.5 months and average mileage of 73,030 miles (117,530km). This was down from 73,419 miles in August. Used electric vans continue to underperform. The powertrain made up only 0.6% of overall market sales, down from 1.1% in September.
The average age of these vehicles increased to 81 months, up from 69.9 months. Meanwhile, average mileage also rose to 39,316 miles from 34,104 miles in September. Euro 5 stock made up the remaining 25.3% of sales, up 5% on the previous period.
Implications of ageing
The average age of sold stock increased from 77 months in September to 84.1 months. This was 1.1 months older than in October 2023. Average mileage over the month also increased by 1.4% to 81,033 miles. However, this was 1.9% lower than the 82,584-mile average recorded twelve months ago.
Sales of medium-sized vans continue to outweigh all others at auction, accounting for 37.6% of all auction sales. Small vans captured 30.1% of the market and large vans made up 21.2% of sales.
Volumes of sold 4x4 pickup stock accounted for 11.1% of all sales, up 0.2%. The sector recorded the highest average sale price at £11,471 (€13,850), dropping 6.6% from September.
Large vans covered more distance than any other vehicle type at an average of 89,424 miles. This was an increase of nearly 3,600 miles on the previous month and 200 miles compared to October last year.
Conversion rates improve
First-time conversion rates improved by 8.6% to 81.8% overall. This was 5.2% higher than 12 months ago.
The best conversion rates in October were achieved in the 4x4 pickup sector at 85.4%. This was up 7.5% year on year. On the other hand, a conversion rate of 79.9% in the medium panel van sector returned the lowest. This was an improvement of 2.9% compared to October 2023.
Used vehicles observed for sale in the retail market last month remained stable at 46,530 units. Diesel models made up 93.6% of this total, while 2% were petrol. BEVs accounted for 3.5% of the used retail market and 0.6% were PHEVs.
Out of all vehicles on sale, 37.6% were valued at £20,000 or more, while 35.4% were on sale for between £20,000 and £10,000. At the lower end of the market, LCVs on sale between £10,000 and £5,000 accounted for 21.8% of the overall market, up 1.1%. The remaining volume was made up of vehicles on sale for less than £5,000, with a 5.2% share.
White vehicles accounted for 50% of all those observed for sale. This was followed by grey at 16% and silver at 10.3%. The average age of all vehicles in October remained static at 57 months. Meanwhile, average mileage fell to 57,825 miles. This was a fall of 2% on September.
