Do the 2024 EU registration figures show a shift in buyer powertrain preferences?

21 January 2025

The EU’s new-car market narrowly avoided overall decline in 2024, thanks to a positive result in December. Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the latest figures.

The EU’s new-car market staggered to growth in 2024, with December providing a boost in registrations, thanks to the hybrid market.

In the final month of the year, a total of 910,505 passenger cars were delivered to customers across the 27 EU member states. This was up 5.1% on the same period in 2023, according to figures from industry association ACEA.

The figures underline a strong end to the year and the best performance for the market since April. This was helped by a 28.8% rise in Spanish registrations, a result that helped the country achieve over one million deliveries for the year.

France also saw an improvement, its 1.5% rise the first registrations improvement in the country since April. The Netherlands saw impressive growth, with registrations improving by 40.3%, while Poland ended the month up by 32.2%.

However, declines in other larger markets held the total EU results back. Germany saw its registrations struggle in December, with figures down 7.1%. Italy too failed to inspire buyers into new models, with a 4.9% decline to end the year.

Difficult times in the EU

The results mean the full-year total in the EU stood at just over 10.63 million units, a year-on-year improvement of 0.8%. The market sat at just 0.4% growth by the end of November.

This small improvement equated to a total of 84,216 extra units registered across the 12 months. It was a narrow escape, with the industry having experienced a turbulent year.

Seven months of 2024 saw growth, with a strong start in January and February. While the early Easter impacted figures in March, the market bounced back well in April. This positive period continued into June and July.

Yet a big decline in August, coupled with drops in May, September and November, pulled the market down.

The full-year results were not helped by three of the EU’s biggest automotive markets posting declines. France struggled in 2024, with  deliveries down 3.2%, the worst performance of the big four.

Germany also had a roller-coaster year, ending with a 1% decline across the 12 months, while Italy endured a full year drop of 0.5%.

However, Spain achieved its target of one million passenger car registrations in 2024. Its figures were up 7.1% compared to the previous year. Other large markets outside the big four performed well. This included Poland, with figures up 16.1%, and the Netherlands, with a 3.1% improvement.

Hybrids to dominate?

The EU’s December tally owes everything to the performance of hybrid and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models. These were the only major powertrains in the month to record growth.

During 2024, a shift in powertrain dominance started to emerge. September saw hybrids, made up of full hybrids (HEVs) and mild hybrids (MHEVs), overtake petrol to lead ACEA’s EU monthly figures for the first time. This trend continued across the final quarter of the year, presenting a real challenge to petrol, the current market leader.

December saw hybrid registrations leap by 33.1%, as 305,922 units took to the road. This gave the powertrain a 33.6% market share in the month, up by 7.1 percentage points (pp) on the same month in 2023. This was the highest market share of the year for the hybrid market.

The result meant that in the full year, hybrid registrations in the EU totalled over 3.28 million. This was an improvement of 20.9% against 2023’s figures, and made the powertrain the only one, apart from the smaller ‘others’ category, to record growth across the year. Hybrids ended 2024 with a 30.9% market share, up from 25.8% in 2023.

The results may owe much to the attitude of carmakers. Many brands are steering away from traditional internal-combustion engine (ICE) powertrains, and adding more MHEV and HEV options in their lineups.

To highlight this, the French automotive market, which breaks HEVs and MHEVs into separate categories, saw registrations of MHEVs improve by 47.4%. Meanwhile, HEVs increased by 28.8%. These were the only powertrains in the country’s market to record growth. In contrast, petrol registrations declined 20.9% in the year.

With this trend likely to continue into 2025, it could prove to be a watershed year for the market, with petrol losing its position as market leader. This would be the first time since it overtook diesel in 2017.

Bad year for BEVs

December capped what has been a bad year for the battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2024. Registrations fell 10.2% in the month, with 144,367 units delivered. This gave the all-electric powertrain a market share of 15.9%, a drop of 2.6pp.

Collapses in the BEV sector were witnessed in Germany, which ended the month down 38.6%, and France, dropping 20.7%. Italy and Sweden also saw BEV registrations fall, by 14.8% and 6.8% respectively, albeit on lower figures.

It was up to other strong BEV markets to limit the damage. The Netherlands saw registrations leap 56.5%, while Belgium recorded a 15.1% improvement. Spain saw growth of 49.6%, an impressive figure for the country which has struggled to inspire buyers into all-electric models.

Yet, BEVs needed a breakthrough month to prevent a first full-year decline since ACEA began recording all-electric vehicle figures in 2016. As this did not materialise, the technology ended 2024 with a 5.9% decline year on year, with over 1.44 million units delivered.

This result was driven by a huge loss in Germany, with figures down 27.4%, equating to a 143,610-unit gap. This also meant the UK, although not part of the overall EU figures, narrowly overtook the country to become the leading BEV market in Europe.

France saw a smaller decline across the 12 months of 2.6%. Italy was down 1%, while Spain improved its BEV registrations by 11.2% last year. Belgium saw a jump of 36.9%, while the Netherlands’ market improved 16%.

The zero-emission powertrain ended the year with a 13.6% market share, a drop of 1pp year on year.

Tactics at play?

There could be some tactical plays by carmakers that have impacted the BEV market in recent months. New EU regulations on CO₂ emissions came into force at the beginning of 2025. New targets were set, lowering the amount of average CO₂ emissions allowed across a carmaker’s fleet in the year.

To help reduce their CO₂ levels, manufacturers will be reliant on HEVs, PHEVs and BEVs to help. These low- and zero-emission models will count against the pollution of petrol and diesel powertrains.

BEVs will play the biggest part in this offset. This means it is likely that some carmakers may have held deliveries of their all-electric models back. By delivering them in January, they will count towards their 2025 fleet totals and, therefore, their overall emissions tallies.

While this does not explain the poorer performance of BEVs across the full year, it does provide some context for the large losses at the end of 2024. Registrations of BEVs declined by 9.5% in November, following an improvement of 2.4% in October.

Plucky PHEVs

While BEVs struggled, on the other side of the electric vehicle fence, PHEVs helped the overall EU market growth in December. Registrations were up 4.9%, with 75,132 units delivered. This gave the powertrain an 8.3% market share, stable from December 2023.

This growth was driven by the French market, with registrations improving 44.9% in the month. Germany also saw its PHEV sector improve, by 6.8%. The Netherlands helped towards the monthly growth too, thanks to a 49.3% increase.

Yet, the result was not enough to help the PHEV market achieve growth in 2024. Registrations declined 6.8% in the year, with 758,944 units taking to roads across the EU. The technology ended 2024 with the lowest market share of the major powertrains, taking 7.1% of total registrations. This was a drop of 0.6pp compared to 2023.

Petrol registrations falter

While hybrids have enjoyed success throughout 2024, the same cannot be said for the petrol market. In a year where there have been no major challenges to registrations, the fuel type has begun to lose its dominant position in a changing marketplace.

December saw petrol registrations suffer another monthly decline. The market dropped 1.8%, with 269,260 deliveries to customers. This gave it a 29.6% market share, down 2pp year on year. This was the lowest hold on the overall market by petrol in 2024.

Of the major EU markets, only Spain saw growth, with figures up 16%. This was not enough to offset the losses in France, where petrol declined 23%. Italy struggled, with figures down 11.4%, while Germany saw a 7.4% slump.

Poland was the only big petrol market outside the top four to record significant improvement, with registrations up 39.3%.

December’s performance meant petrol ended 2024 with a decline. The market dropped 4.8% compared to 2023, as around 3.54 million units were delivered. Its full-year market share of 33.3% was down by 2pp, as buyers continue to turn to alternative propulsion methods.

Meanwhile, diesel saw a 15% drop in December, with 89,064 units registered. This accounted for 9.8% of overall monthly deliveries, down 2.3pp year on year. All major markets recorded a decline, as the fuel type continues to struggle.

Diesel registrations were down 11.4% in 2024, equating to over 1.26 million units. However, it was not the worst-performing powertrain, with its market share of 11.9% across the whole of 2024 ahead of PHEVs. This was, however, a drop of 1.7pp compared to 2023.