Monthly Market Update: New-car list prices and residual value impacts

01 June 2026

Residual values (RVs) continued to normalise in Europe’s major used-car markets during May. But how does this relate to new-car list prices? Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker explores the latest trends.

The downward RV trend across Europe’s major used-car markets showed no signs of stopping in May.

RVs as a percentage of retained list price (%RV) after 36 months and 60,000km fell year-on-year across all observed markets. This includes Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK. Furthermore, this decline is expected to continue into 2027 and 2028 for all markets, except Italy.

However, as %RVs followed a uniform pattern across the seven observed countries, new-car list prices did as well. The metric rose year on year, placing further downward pressure on %RVs.

Soaring prices meet slumping values

The three countries with the biggest list price increases were the only ones to see absolute RVs rise. The most pointed example of this was seen in Switzerland. The market witnessed a 7.7% year-on-year increase in list prices to CHF 64,632 (€70,934). Meanwhile, absolute RVs also rose by 4.1% to CHF 27,014.3.

This RV metric saw an even bigger increase of 4.7% in Austria to €22,456.1. List prices grew to €48,190, up 6.3% compared to May 2025. Meanwhile, Spain observed a 4.6% rise in list prices, reaching €37,367, as absolute RVs climbed 2% to €20,357.7.

Conversely, Italy suffered the largest absolute RV drop, with a 6.3% slump year on year to €17,625.7. This was accompanied by the largest %RV decline across the observed markets. The metric plummeted by 3.7 percentage points (pp) to 44.4%. Meanwhile, list prices increased by 1.6%.

The UK endured the second-largest fall in %RVs, down 3.2pp to 47.6%. Absolute RVs in the country also fell by 4.5%, as list prices grew by 1.9%. France and Germany suffered a decline in both %RVs and absolute RVs, too, alongside rising list prices. However, these changes were more marginal.

Austria’s ongoing value retention pressure

Pricing dynamics softened further in Austria during May. The average trade RV of 36‑month‑old cars at 60,000km declined slightly to €22,456.1. This was down 0.6% month on month, but still 4.7% higher year on year.

‘In May, %RVs fell to 46.6%. Compared to the previous month, this represented a 0.3pp decline and translated to a 0.7pp drop year on year. This highlighted ongoing pressure on value retention,’ said Robert Madas, regional head of valuations.

Full hybrids (HEVs) retained the highest trade value at 50.2%, followed by petrol cars at 49%. Then came diesel models with 46.8% and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) with 43.8%. Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) improved by 0.8pp compared to April but still held the lowest %RV once again at 39.3%.

The RV outlook remains broadly unchanged. %RVs are forecast to decline gradually over the coming years as supply normalises further. A 0.6% year-on-year decline is forecasted in December 2026, followed by a 0.7% decrease in December 2027.

Slight RV decline in France

‘In France, %RVs decreased slightly in May compared to April. This was mainly driven by PHEVs and BEVs. It is also worth noting that there was a marginally less expensive basket this month,’ noted Ludovic Percier, senior RV analyst for France.

Absolute values of petrol-powered cars dropped slightly compared to April, as they held value well until the middle of 2025. Meanwhile, other powertrains experienced larger decreases. Petrol is still offered as a new vehicle by many manufacturers, while diesel engines are becoming rarer.

‘Diesel-powered cars saw %RVs almost stabilise compared to last month. This is because people are still demanding diesel vehicles on the used-car market. Meanwhile, companies have switched from diesel models to BEVs and PHEVs over the last couple of years. This means the number of new diesel registrations has shrunk,’ said Percier.

HEVs recorded a month-on-month increase in absolute RVs in May. The result was caused by increasing petrol prices and more premium HEV offers on the used-car market. This could be seen in May with a more expensive basket.

Overall, used HEVs remain in demand in France, but carmakers cannot risk adding large price premiums to these models. This would jeopardise their value retention.

Unbalanced offer and demand for PHEVs

‘PHEVs continued to see RVs fall as the supply and demand on the used-car market remained unbalanced. The already established situation continues to impact used-car prices, after many vehicles in previous years were sold to fleets on the back of fiscal advantages,’ explained Percier.

Combined with a high list price on the new-car market, this explains the low RVs. PHEVs offering an electric-only range of below 60km have been most affected. The technology recorded the second-lowest %RVs in May, retaining 47.1% of its list price after three years and 60,000km on average.

BEV %RVs also decreased in May. All-electric models held 35.2% of their value, compared to the 50.1% retention recorded in the overall market.

‘The technology is evolving quickly, now offering higher ranges compared to older models from three years ago. Furthermore, the social leasing scheme for new cars is not helping used-car sales. This is because people can get great deals on new BEVs instead of buying the ones available on the used-car market,’ highlighted Percier.

‘Larger segments will be increasingly impacted in the future, as company and fleet vehicle users benefit from fiscal advantages. These vehicles will come to the used-car market in early 2028,’ he projected.

Mixed market in Germany

Overall, the German used‑car market showed a mixed picture in May, with continued pressure on RVs. After slight price decreases in April, pricing dynamics also remained under pressure last month. The average trade RV of a 36‑month‑old car at 60,000km declined to €21,091.5. This was down 1.1% month on month and 1.7% lower year on year.

‘In retention terms, %RVs fell to 46.1%. This marked a 0.2pp decline compared to April and a more pronounced 1.7pp drop against May 2025. The result highlighted continued weakening in value retention,’ stated Madas.

List prices also softened further, averaging €45,786 in May. This represented a 0.7% month‑on‑month decline. However, prices remained 1.9% higher than a year earlier, which still provided some support to absolute RV levels.

By powertrain, petrol cars continued to lead with a %RV of 47.5%, followed closely by diesel at 47.3% and HEVs at 46.9%. PHEVs held on to 42% of their value, while BEVs remained with the lowest %RV at 36.9%. This remained in line with the powertrain gap observed throughout 2025.

‘Looking ahead, gradual downward pressure on %RVs is still expected as supply normalises further,’ forecasted Madas.

By the end of 2026, %RVs are projected to decline by 1.9% compared with December 2025. Pressure is predicted to ease somewhat in 2027, with a smaller decline of 0.9% expected. This indicates ongoing RV strain, driven by recovering supply, normalising demand, and elevated list prices.

Slowdown in Italy

‘Over the past months, the Italian used-car market has shown signs of a slowdown. This forms part of a negative trend that has been observed in recent years,’ outlined Marco Pasquetti, cluster head of forecasting for Spain and Italy.

Trade %RVs declined by just 0.2pp in May compared to the previous month. However, they remain significantly lower than a year ago.

‘Our analyses indicate that the decline will continue in the coming months, albeit at a progressively lower intensity. The trend suggests a gradual move toward a stabilisation phase. We estimate that the market needs approximately one more year to reach a new equilibrium, with normalisation expected by 2028,’ said Pasquetti.

For certain powertrains, particularly PHEVs and BEVs, this process already appears to be underway. Following a period of sharp corrections, the pace of %RV decline has eased considerably.

‘Compared to April, PHEVs recorded a decrease of 0.3pp, while BEVs remained broadly stable at 28.3%. Considering these dynamics, the 2026 RV outlook has been revised. A year-end decline of 2.8% for PHEVs and 0.9% for BEVs compared to December 2025 is forecast,’ projected Pasquetti.

A different picture emerged for HEVs, which experienced a more pronounced decline than expected. The technology suffered a 4.7pp year-on-year %RV drop and a 0.5pp fall compared to April. Despite this, HEVs remain one of the most resilient powertrains in terms of RV retention.

Spain’s growing interest in electrification

‘Spain’s automotive market maintained a positive trend throughout April. Passenger car registrations increased by 8.5% compared to the same month in 2025, once again surpassing the 100,000-unit mark,’ commented Ana Azofra, regional head of valuations and insights.

This growth continues to be boosted by electric vehicles (EVs), including BEVs and PHEVs. The powertrain group saw a 42.6% rise in registrations during April. In the first four months of the year, BEV and PHEV models accounted for 21% of total registrations, up 6.3pp year on year.

Across sales channels, growth was widespread. The private channel saw the best improvement of 11.2%, followed by companies up 9.2% and rentals up 3.7%. Overall, new-vehicle deliveries continue to reflect a still dynamic demand environment across the sector. As in previous months, this growing interest in electrification is also evident in the used-car market.

Regarding used-car transaction prices, absolute RVs recorded a slight fall of 0.8%. This meant, on average, the metric stood at €20,357.7 for a three-year-old used car at 60,000km.

‘Petrol vehicles followed a similar trend, while diesel models showed a steeper drop of 1.4%. This latter result reflected softer demand for this type of powertrain, which can be linked to rising fuel prices. However, the impact is milder in Spain than in other markets, thanks to government subsidies covering part of fuel costs,’ highlighted Azofra.

‘HEVs showed the same trend as the overall market in May, with BEVs following a similar pattern. However, PHEVs saw a 1.4% decline compared with the previous month. This was more influenced by lower-priced models entering the used-vehicle supply and sales mix than by a price adjustment,’ she noted.

Stable used-car market in Switzerland

The Swiss used‑car market showed signs of stabilising in May when it came to absolute RVs and value retention. After another decrease in April, %RVs showed a modest recovery in May.

‘The average %RV of a 36‑month‑old car at 60,000km increased to 41.8%, representing a 0.4pp rise month on month. Nevertheless, compared with May 2025, %RVs were 1.5pp lower, highlighting that underlying depreciation pressure remains significant,’ said Madas.

In absolute terms, trade RVs rose to CHF 27,014.3, up 1.8% month on month and 4.1% higher year on year. This was supported by continued increases in new‑car pricing.

‘List prices climbed to CHF 64,632, representing a 0.7% month‑on‑month increase and a 7.7% rise year on year. This reinforced the upward price environment,’ stated Madas.

HEVs retained the most value of any powertrain in May by far at 46.6%. Then came petrol-powered cars at 43.1%, diesel-powered models at 41.2% and PHEVs at 39.8%. BEVs continued to be the worst-performing powertrain despite some recovery from April, holding only 36% of their original list price.

Looking ahead, the residual‑value outlook remains unchanged. %RVs are expected to decline gradually as the market continues to normalise. %RVs are forecast to decrease further in the coming years, but at a slower pace. By the end of 2026, %RVs are expected to fall by 1.5% compared to December 2025. A further year-on-year drop of 0.5% is anticipated in 2027.

UK’s varied powertrain performance

‘The UK’s used car market demonstrated consistency in May. The average %RV of a three-year-old car remained broadly level at 47.6% of list price, up 0.1pp from April,’ said Jayson Whittington, regional head of valuations for the UK.

May’s dashboard shows a big variation in powertrain performance. Petrol cars improved, with %RVs rising 0.4pp month on month to 49.1% of list price. Diesel values softened, with RVs falling 2pp to 56.3%. Even after the drop, diesel retained the highest %RV in May.

Meanwhile, electrified technologies saw mixed results. HEVs were stable, edging down 0.1pp to 51.6%. PHEVs weakened by 0.6pp to 43.9%. BEVs dipped 0.3pp to 34.4% and were 3.1pp down compared to May 2025. This reflects the growing volume of BEVs entering used car channels.

Year on year, the market was lower across most fuels, with overall %RVs down 3.2pp. The exception was diesel, which was up 3.3pp versus last May.

‘Recent wholesale activity suggests trading conditions are beginning to slow, likely increasing inventory and leading to a gentle easing in RVs, which is typical behaviour as we approach the summer months,’ concluded Whittington.