How to manage trends and deliver growth in new and used passenger-car markets
28 January 2022
Mastering the trends in used-car markets has always been critical to the survival of those with asset risks on their books. It is not only sudden shocks, like COVID-19 and supply-chain disruptions, which have an impact and add challenges to forecasting.
There are ongoing and impactful regulatory trends. For example, Europe’s Green Deal and national government’s biting-down-hard on the internal-combustion engine (ICE). These developments are easier to anticipate and can be integrated systematically into strategic planning, but they have huge repercussions on the supply and demand situation in new- and used-car markets.
Innovation also has an effect, for example, the electrification of the automotive industry, which impacts range and infrastructure build-up. Such developments need to feed into meaningful data-driven forecasts. This requires regular re-evaluation as parameters change.
Tumultuous two years
The new Autovista24 report: Trends & Growth Opportunities: new and used passenger cars does exactly that. In this first instalment, we provide a deep dive into our latest forecasts on the electrification trends of Europe’s new- and used-car markets. It is priced at €1,995 plus VAT where applicable.
‘The automotive industry has seen some turmoil in the past two years, rooted in the COVID-19 crisis and subsequent semiconductor shortages and other supply issues,’ said Sonja Nehls, principal analyst, launch intelligence, Autovista24. ‘Reduced new-car availability pushed residual values (RVs) to unprecedented heights – up to 30% above market levels from the beginning of 2020.’
‘The report gives more details on how RVs in the five major European markets have developed and, most importantly, the outlook for 2022 and 2023. We present how diesel, petrol, battery-electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles are expected to perform, and if RV levels can be maintained, or whether there is a bubble building in some markets and segments.’
What to expect
The report covers a number of essential areas of today’s automotive industry, including:
- The ramifications of electrification across Europe’s new- and used-car markets
- Deep dive into segment trends for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), diesel and petrol passenger vehicles
- Residual-value forecast 2022-2023 for France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK
- Focus on A, B, B-SUV, C, C-SUV, D, D-SUV and E-segments
- An interactive dashboard to visualise previous and the most recent RV forecasts by segment, country and powertrain.
Trends & Growth Opportunities: new and used passenger cars is packed with detailed market data, analysis, and forecasts from experts across Autovista Group. It will be of interest to a wide variety of entities and organisations, providing information that can help make business decisions and manage risks.
The report will help OEMs, national sales companies, and importers, make informed decisions about which powertrains (BEV, PHEV, petrol or diesel) will develop more or less favourably in each of the five covered used-car markets. It will also facilitate the transition to electromobility and ensure portfolio setup, vehicle specifications, and communication to markets and fleet customers is accurate.
Those in finance, fleet leasing, and asset risks will be able to use the report to help manage portfolio risks by overlaying 2022/2023 segment-specific residual-value forecasts and trends for diesel, petrol, PHEVs and BEVs across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK. It will also open up data-driven decisions, which can be taken now to optimise market position.
Investment banks, hedge funds, and consultancies will gain an insight into which trends will prevail, and those that may reverse, following the rally on used-car markets. There will also be the opportunity to understand, in detail, the challenges facing dealers, OEMs, finance and leasing companies.