Hybrids shine as EU new-car market sees summer growth

02 September 2024

The EU new-car market grew marginally in July, driven by strong hybrid growth as other popular powertrains struggled. Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, looks into the latest trends.

The EU new-car market reached a total of 852,051 registrations in July, a 0.2% year-on-year increase. Excluding declines in May and March, this was the smallest monthly growth recorded so far this year.

According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), the increase was driven by hybrids, including full and mild hybrids. Apart from the smaller volume ‘others’ segment, it was the only powertrain category to record growth in July.

The two biggest EU new-car markets, France and Germany, declined by 2.3% and 2.1% respectively. Meanwhile, increases were seen in the next two largest markets of Italy (up 4.7%) and Spain (up 3.4%) in the month.

Looking at July’s other five-digit markets, Poland posted an improvement of 18.6%. Meanwhile, the Czech Republic (up 8.5%), Romania (up 7.9%), Austria (up 7.6%) and Denmark (up 2.5%) also increased volumes.

Elsewhere, Portugal fell 9.5%, alongside Belgium (down 7.3%), the Netherlands (down 6.2%), Ireland (down 6%), Sweden (down 5.6%) and Greece (down 1.4%).

Widespread growth

From January to July, the EU recorded nearly 6.53 million deliveries. This equated to growth of 3.9% or almost 247,000 units compared with the first half of 2023.

All major EU new-car markets improved in the first seven months of 2024, as Germany and France jumped by 4.3% and 2.2% respectively. Registrations in Italy surged by 5.2% and Spain enjoyed the strongest increase of the four countries at 5.6%.

Poland had a positive performance in the year to date, with deliveries rising 16.4%. Austria (up 6.8%), the Czech Republic (up 3.8% ) and Portugal (up 3.8%) also recorded an improvement.

On the other hand, Sweden (down 5.9%), the Netherlands (down 3.6%), Belgium (down 1.2%) and Ireland (down 0.3%) have had a poor 2024 so far.

Heroic hybrids

Hybrids helped the EU new-car market achieve growth in July. The powertrain saw registrations jump 25.7% to 273,003 units. This equated to nearly 56,000 more hybrids that at the same point last year.

Excluding the technology from the overall figure, the EU new-car market would have suffered a delivery drop of 8.5% in the month.

The hybrid market share surged 6.5 percentage points (pp) to 32%. It sat just 1.4pp behind petrol’s market share in July, compared to a 10.4pp gap from 12 months ago.

The two biggest markets for the powertrain, Germany and Italy, posted growth of 22.4% and 17.4% respectively in July. Even greater volume growth was recorded in France and Spain, up 47.4% and 31.5% respectively.

Meanwhile, there was a significant increase of 37% in Poland, the only other market to reach five-digit hybrid figures in the month. Only four of the 27 EU member states suffered a hybrid decline in July.

Continual hybrid growth

In the year to date, hybrid registrations were up 22.8% in the EU, with just under 1.94 million units. This resulted in almost 359,000 more deliveries than at the same time last year.

It was the only powertrain category apart from ‘others’ to post growth in the first seven months of the year. Excluding hybrids in the year-to-date total, EU new-car registrations would have slumped by 2.4%.

Hybrids took a market share of 29.6% from January to July, up from the 25.1% recorded during the same period in 2023. The gap to petrol shortened too, going from 11.8pp one year ago to 5.5pp.

Germany and Italy enjoyed double-digit growth of 13.7% and 15.8% respectively. However, they were outperformed by France and Spain, where hybrid deliveries increased by 38.2% and 26.7% respectively.

Poland enjoyed the biggest hybrid growth of all six-digit markets, with registrations rising 44.2%. Compared to other EU member states, only the smaller markets of Greece and Bulgaria could beat this rate of growth.

PHEVs poor performance

In contrast to hybrids, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) were the worst-performing powertrain in July. The technology dropped by 14.1% to 57,679 deliveries in the month. PHEVs accounted for 6.8% of registrations in July, down from 7.9% during the same period one year ago.

Germany, the only five-digit PHEV market in the month, saw volumes grow 3.2%. Yet, the next biggest market for the technology, France, suffered a fall of 30.7%. Italy followed this trend, declining 8.5%.

The remaining four-digit markets had varied results. Ireland improved by 38.2%, while Sweden (up 8.8%), Austria (up 8.2%) and Portugal (up 3.2%) also increased volumes. However, Belgium and Spain struggled, dropping 48.6% and 14.7% respectively. The Netherlands (down 3.2%) and Portugal (down 4.6%) recorded poor results too.

Across the first seven months of 2024, a total of 449,702 PHEVs took to EU roads, down 4.1% year on year. This equated to a drop of over 19,000 units. Its market share fell 0.6pp to 6.9%.

Germany and France, the technology’s two biggest markets, have had contrasting performances this year. The former, the only six-digit PHEV market so far, was up 11.7%, while the latter was down 9.2%.

Belgium, the next largest country for PHEVs, slumped 16.2% from January to July. Spain saw a more marginal drop of 4.5%, while Sweden, which was only 3 units behind, saw volumes improve by 6.5%. Elsewhere, Italy declined 24% as the Netherlands grew by 2.4%.

Backward BEVs

Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) also suffered a bad result in July. The technology fell 10.8% in the month, with 102,705 deliveries. It was the second worst-performing powertrain in the month and was outperformed by diesel in terms of volume. Its share dropped to 12.1% in July, down from the 13.5% recorded one year ago.

These struggles can largely be attributed to Germany, the biggest BEV market, which slumped 36.8% in the month. Meanwhile, the only other five-digit market of France recorded a slight growth of 1%.

Ireland posted the steepest decline of the four-digit countries, falling 24.9% in July. This was followed by Finland (down 21.3%), Sweden (down 14.9%), Austria (down 11.7%) and Poland (down 0.2%).

However, strong improvement was achieved in Denmark and Belgium, jumping 68.8% and 44.2% respectively. Luxembourg (up 38.5%), Portugal (up 23%), Spain (up 12.4%), the Netherlands (up 8.9%) and Italy (up 4.5%) also increased registrations.

Smaller year-to-date drop

In the year to date, BEV volumes were down by 0.4%, reaching 815,399 deliveries. The technology sits just over 22,000 units behind diesel. From January to July, the BEV share dropped 0.5pp year on year to 12.5%. Yet, this was only 0.3pp away from diesel’s hold of the market.

The powertrain slumped 20.1% across the first seven months of the year in Germany. France, the only other six-digit market, was up 13.3%. The next two biggest BEV markets, Belgium and the Netherlands, saw registrations surge 47.3% and 4.7% respectively.

Elsewhere, BEV volumes in Denmark jumped 51.3% in the year to date, followed by smaller growth in Portugal (up 14%), Italy (up 6.7%), Spain (up 6.1%) and Poland (up 3.8%).

However, Finland posted a BEV decline of 30%, as Ireland (down 24.9%), Sweden (down 19.4%) and Austria (down 5.9%) also dropped.

Empty EV result

Combining PHEV and BEV deliveries, the electric vehicle (EV) market suffered a 12% fall in July, with 160,384 registrations. Plug-ins took an 18.9% market share in the month, down from 21.4% in July 2023.

This decline was more marginal in the year to date, with registrations down 1.7% year on year, equating to nearly 1.27 million fewer units. EVs accounted for 19.4% of deliveries from January to July, down 1.1pp.

Adding hybrids to the plug-in total, the electrified market took a 50.9% share in July. This was almost 5pp ahead of the internal-combustion engine (ICE) market. This also meant a sizeable improvement on the 47% share recorded 12 months ago.

In the first seven months of the year, EVs and hybrids accounted for 49% of new-car registrations, 1.1pp ahead of the ICE market. This was also a 3.5pp improvement from the same period during 2023.

Diesel disappoints

Diesel had a disappointing performance in July, with volumes down 10.1% to 107,670 deliveries. Its market share dropped to 12.6% from 14.1% a year earlier.

Italy drove this decline. As the second biggest diesel market in the EU, its diesel registrations slumped 24.6% in the month. Meanwhile, Germany, the EU’s largest diesel market, stayed stable, up 1.4%.

Another notable drop was seen in Belgium, with volumes down 43.5%. France (down 23.9%), Slovakia (down 22.8%), Austria (down 19.7%), Portugal (down 18%), Croatia (down 12.9%) and Spain (down 11.6%) also endured double-digit decreases.

In the year to date, diesel was down 7.9%, with 837,794 deliveries. This equates to a loss of over 71,000 units compared to the same period in 2023. The powertrain’s share sat at 12.8%, a stark contrast from the 14.5% market hold recorded one year ago.

This volume decline was mainly caused by the major markets of France (down 23%), Italy (down 20.9%) and Spain (down 17.3%). Smaller volume declines in Belgium (down 46.8%), Portugal (down 26.9%) and Sweden (down 17.3%) compounded this drop. Elsewhere, a strong growth of 40.1% was recorded in Romania.

Petrol share plummeting

With a total of 284,270 registrations, petrol endured a 7% slump in July. This is equivalent to a drop of over 21,000 units. Its share plummeted 2.5pp in the month to 33.4%.

Double-digit declines were seen in France and Spain of 22.6% and 12.5% respectively. Meanwhile, petrol registrations in Italy grew 3.8% as Germany remained stable, up 0.1%. Petrol volumes in Poland increased by 8.9%, as the other five-digit petrol market of Belgium slipped 1.4%.

Across the first seven months of the year, petrol deliveries were 1.3% down, with 2.29 million units. The powertrain accounted for 35.1% of registrations from January to July, down from 36.9% a year previously.

The powertrain’s biggest changes in the major EU markets were seen in France which fell 14.3% and Italy which improved 13%. More minor developments occurred in Germany (up 6.4%) and Spain (down 2.3%). Both remaining five-digit markets also had small changes, with volumes in Belgium and Poland slumping by 6.1% and 2.4% respectively.

ICE in trouble?

Combining diesel and petrol deliveries, ICE volumes slipped 7.8% in July, totalling 391,940 units. This resulted in a sharp share drop in the month, down 4pp to 46%. This was significantly behind the electrified market hold.

From January to July, the ICE market was down 3.1% with 3.13 million registrations. The powertrain grouping accounted for 47.9% of new-car deliveries in this period, down from the 51.4% share recorded one year ago.

The ‘others’ category, which includes fuel-cell electric vehicles, natural gas vehicles, liquefied petroleum gas vehicles, E85/ethanol-powered vehicles and other fuels, recorded 26,724 units in July. This was an increase of 5.3% year on year.

The category took a market share of 3.1% in the month, up 0.1pp compared to 12 months ago. Across the first seven months of the year, the segment was up 6.3% with 206,010 registrations. This resulted in a market share of 3.2%, up from 3.1% during the same period last year.