Is a full-year decline in sight for EU new-car registrations?
19 December 2024
Registrations in the EU fell again in November, bringing the year-to-date figure closer to decline. Autovista24 special content editor, Phil Curry, examines the trends and discusses what the market must do to avoid this fate.
The EU automotive market suffered another decline in new-car registrations during November. The fifth drop this year means the sector is precariously close to shrinking by the end of 2024.
The latest data from industry body ACEA shows the market contracted by 1.9% year on year in November. A total of 869,816 new passenger cars took to EU roads, with major markets driving this decline. This equated to 17,102 fewer units in the month.
Both France and Italy suffered large delivery drops in the month. The French new-car market fell by 12.7%, while Italian registrations declined 10.8%. Germany also saw a decline, albeit a modest 0.5%.
These results alone meant 35,559 units were lost from the overall EU figure. When adding Belgium’s 15.3% fall, this deficit increased to 41,286 units. This gap proved impossible for other markets to bridge.
Precarious position of EU market
The November result has brought the EU’s year-to-date total to just 0.4% above its tally from the first 11 months of 2023.
This is a difference of 42,196 units, leaving the market in a precarious position to ensure growth this year. A drop of around 5.2% in December would be enough to see the EU passenger car sector record fewer registrations year-on-year for the first time since 2022.
However, that year was impacted by the supply-chain crisis, which affected the first eight months of deliveries. There has been no major external crisis affecting the industry in 2024.
Instead, a number of mitigating circumstances have come together to derail registrations. These include the end of electric vehicle (EV) incentives in some markets, higher inflation, and a collapse in the petrol market, once a staple of growth.
While the 5.2% decline margin in December seems high, this equates to 45,386 fewer units. It is possible that this situation could occur, especially as the EU market has been unstable in 2024. Registrations dipped 18.3% in August, while in September deliveries were down 6.1%. In December of last year, figures were down by 3.3%.
There is also the potential of carmakers holding some deliveries of low and zero-emission vehicles back until January. This would allow them to count towards fleet figures for 2025, and help to lower average CO2 emissions. This will be vitally important with new targets coming into effect next year.
BEV registrations down
One of the biggest disappointments of 2024 has been the performance of the battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market. After growth of 37% across the whole of 2023, November’s results have all but confirmed the sector will decline this year.
Last month, a total of 130,757 all-electric models took to EU roads. This was 9.5% down compared to November 2023 and continued a trend of declines this year. The powertrain sustained a long period of growth between May 2020 and December 2023. But this year has seen declines in six of the first 11 months.
This means that in the year to date, BEV registrations were 5.4% lower than they were 12 months ago. While over 1.3 million units have been delivered, this represents a gap of 73,802 units compared with the same period last year.
For the powertrain to avoid its first-ever full-year EU decline since ACEA started recording BEV figures in 2016, it would need to achieve growth of 46.2% in December.
Greater market diversity
This year has seen the EU’s BEV market diversify away from the big four markets of Germany, France, Italy and Spain. All of these markets saw registrations decline in November, with France (down 24.4%) and Germany (down 21.8%) the most significant.
Italy (down 17.4%) and Spain (down 4.3%) did not see high volumes of BEVs registered. Buyers in these markets seem more wary of the technology.
Instead, the Netherlands and Belgium have entered the fray, creating an ‘EV big six’. These two markets saw growth of 41.8% and 18.4% respectively in the month. However, these results were not enough to counter the bigger volume losses from France and Germany.
The performance meant BEVs took a 15% share of the overall EU new-car market in the month. This was down by 1.3 percentage points (pp) compared to November 2023. In the first 11 months, the powertrain held 13.4% of the market, a decline from the 14.2% recorded in the same period last year.
PHEVs slip
Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) have also struggled in 2024, although their volumes have been consistently lower than those of BEVs. In November, the market fell 8.8%, with 65,826 registrations. This is a gap of 6,350 units compared to the same month last year.
The biggest PHEV loss across the larger EV new-car markets was seen in Belgium, with deliveries falling 61.4%. France also struggled, with 19.6% fewer registrations, while Italy’s 31.4% decline was based on lower volumes. Spain also saw a large decline, of 11.5%, albeit on smaller initial figures.
Germany helped to stem the losses, with PHEV deliveries increasing 13.7%, while the Netherlands saw growth of 58%. Sweden also posted strong figures, with numbers up 18.8%. However, these performances were not enough to prevent the market’s overall decline.
PHEVs ended November with a 7.6% market share, a drop of 0.5pp, and the lowest of all major powertrain types.
In the first 11 months of the year, the PHEV market was down by 8%, with a share of 7%. This marked a decline of 0.7pp. To achieve growth in the year, the PHEV market would need to see registrations improve by 82% in December, a figure that is likely beyond reach.
Combining BEV and PHEV figures, the EV market dropped by 9.3% in November, with 196,583 deliveries. This gave the powertrain grouping a 22.6% market share, down 1.8pp year on year.
In the first 11 months of 2024, plug-in registrations fell 6.3%, equating to just under two million units. EVs accounted for 20.4% of new-car deliveries in this period, some distance behind its 21.9% share from one year ago.
Hybrid registration hype
The hybrid market, made up of full hybrids (HEVs) and mild hybrids (MHEVs), was the only powertrain to see improvement in November.
Its 288,776-unit total was 18.5% more than it achieved at the same point last year. This made it the best-selling powertrain in the month in terms of volume. The 33.2% market share achieved in the month was 5.7pp higher than seen in November 2023.
Of the big markets, France led the way with growth of 31%. Spain saw figures improve by 30.4%, with Germany improving by 22.3%. Another large-volume market to see strong figures was Poland, with figures up 9.4%.
Hybrids have now led the EU market for three consecutive months, since achieving the feat for the first time in September. Their improvement has coincided with a decline in petrol registrations. This suggests more carmakers are offering MHEV technology rather than standard internal-combustion engine (ICE) powertrains. Many are also increasing the number of HEVs available in their ranges.
Between January and November, hybrids have seen registrations improve by 19.7%, with almost three million units registered. This equates to a market share of 30.7%, up by 5pp year on year.
Hybrid’s performance may have come a little too late for it to be the dominant powertrain for the full year. At the end of November, the gap between it and petrol was 296,320 units. It would therefore need to more than double its registrations tally in December, or rely on petrol deliveries completely collapsing.
However, this end-of-year performance does suggest that the powertrain could start next year in a strong position. It could even be the dominant technology for 2025.
Petrol problems
While hybrids have risen to the top in monthly figures, petrol has struggled throughout the year. Figures were strong at the beginning of 2024, but dipped into decline during May. Since then, the fuel-type has not improved on its monthly tallies, and November continued this trend.
A total of 266,115 petrol models took to EU roads in the month, down by 7.8% compared to November 2023. This equates to a difference of 22,482 units and left the powertrain with a 30.6% market share. While still strong, this is down from the 32.5% seen in the same month last year.
All the big four markets saw petrol declines. This was led by France with numbers down 31.5%. Then came Italy (down 12.3%), Germany (down 5.4) and Spain (down 2.3%). Belgium also saw a decline, of 2.2%, while Poland helped to stem the losses with a 31.2% increase.
Across 2024, petrol registrations were down 4.9%, with carmakers likely promoting MHEV powertrains ahead of the non-electrified options.
This means almost 3.3 million petrol cars have been delivered to customers, a 33.7% share of the overall total. The fuel type remains the most dominant this year, but its hold has slipped by 1.9pp between January and November.
In order for petrol to prevent a full-year loss, it would need to see an additional 172,331 units delivered in December. While some carmakers may try to pull registrations forward into the month, to avoid models counting towards their 2025 totals, this would equate to a 62.8% year-on-year improvement. Based on the fuel type’s performance in 2024 so far, this may not be achievable.
Diesel drop continues
Diesel deliveries fell again in November. Just 92,180 units were registered in the month, a fall of 15.3%. This left the technology with a market share of 10.6%, down by 1.7pp compared to the same month last year.
The fuel type suffered large losses in several markets, with France seeing 33.3% fewer registrations, and Spain posting a decline of 23.6%. Italy saw figures decline 21.3% and German diesel registrations dropped 7.5%. Poland was the only larger market to see growth, but its 16.6% improvement, totalling 4,713 registrations, was just 672 units higher than its November 2023 tally.
In the year to date, diesel was down by 11.2%. The once-dominant fuel type recorded almost 1.2 million registrations between January and November, equating to a 12.1% market share. This was a drop of 1.6pp compared to the same period in 2023. It is, however, outperforming PHEVs, meaning it is very unlikely to end the year as the least-popular choice of the major powertrains.
Combining petrol and diesel volumes, ICE market fell 9.9% in November, with 358,295 deliveries. The powertrain grouping captured 41.2% of new-car registrations last month, a decline of 3.6pp year on year.
From January to November, a total of over 4.4 million new ICE vehicles have been registered, down 6.7% on the same period in 2023. The market accounted for 45.8% of deliveries, significantly behind its 49.3% share during the first 11 months of last year.
