New and used-car values in Poland impact international markets

29 January 2025

At the end of 2024, many used-car market trends observed in Poland began to stabilise, while new-car registrations improved. Marcin Kardas, head of valuations at Eurotax Poland, analyses the figures with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Reflecting on a full year of data provides an opportunity to review trends and look ahead to 2025. Poland’s domestic used-car market saw stability in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Used vehicles up to two and a half years of age, and those over seven and a half years lost the least value last year. This shows the attractiveness of young cars, whose values have hit significant lows. The trend also highlighted the popularity of older, cheaper models.

Three-to-four-year-old vehicles, as well as pre-pandemic models between five and seven years old, saw the greatest depreciation. These came primarily from fleets, offered in large quantities.

Despite the market stability, a problem emerged with the remarketing of used vehicles. Sales times have elongated. Meanwhile, the low Euro exchange rate made used cars from Poland less attractive on the international market, impacting exports. This increased the supply in the country, creating the potential for further value declines at the beginning of 2025.

Among the different powertrains, petrol and diesel saw residual values (RVs) decline at a similar rate. Hybrid values dropped a little slower, while battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) saw the greatest rate of depreciation. This was a persistent trend across 2024.

The A, B and B-SUV segments enjoyed the lowest rate of RV decline, a trend which has remained consistent. Meanwhile, larger used-car categories including the E segment have endured rates of depreciation above the market average.

New-car boost in Poland

Stable demand for used cars justifies the decent new-car market growth. A total of 551,568 registrations were recorded across 2024, a 16.1% increase compared to 2023.

This improvement was bolstered by falling transaction prices, and shifting purchases around the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand followed, with the private sector leading this trend as its market share reached 31.8%.

Private buyers also flocked to Chinese brands which recently debuted on the Polish market. This was something of a surprise, as fleets might have been expected to drive demand for these models.

Diversifying powertrains

The new-car market in Poland has continued to evolve. Petrol-powered models accounted for just 37.4% of deliveries, while diesel’s market share slumped to 8.9%. BEVs were only able to reach a 3% share.

Meanwhile, hybrids dominated. This was a consequence of changes in carmaker lineups, following the need to reduce emissions due to new regulations.

From the beginning of 2025, new CAFE regulations came into force, with various scenarios now possible. This includes drastic price increases for new internal-combustion engine cars, to a reduction in their availability. There is also the potential for large price reductions for BEVs to meet emission thresholds.

Following the new incentive scheme, ‘MojEauto’, published by the Polish Government in January, companies are excluded from subsidies. This could impact the BEV market, as the sector drove registrations last year. Support will continue for private buyers, but this will likely limit BEV market development in the country, due to the low demand from this customer group.

Yet, reaching these emission targets will not be an easy task. Carmakers face growing competition from Chinese manufacturers and flagging support for BEV incentive programmes. It is likely that the market will continue to evolve in 2025.

Commercial vehicle improvement

Poland’s commercial vehicle market recorded a slight registration increase last year. A total of 66,853 units were delivered, an improvement of 3.6% year on year. However, demand is far from stabilising.

A large decline in values was observed throughout the year, which continued in the fourth quarter. This decrease was similar across all commercial segments, although some models accelerated towards the end of the year.

Compared to other major European markets, asking prices in Poland fell the furthest. In addition to price declines, the timing of used-van sales was also highly variable. This indicates the unstable economic situation which continues to affect the market.

New emissions regulations will also affect commercial vehicle manufacturers. There will be pressure to sell battery-electric versions of their models. However, the market for these used electric models is slow. This means very high depreciation and limited profitability on purchases.

This was particularly evident in the heavy commercial vehicle segment. Diesel continued to dominate the market, with values falling steadily at the end of 2024.

Emission limits could lead to more competition among manufacturers and discounts for electric models. Their model ranges in this category will also increase. For now, there is limited activity from Chinese manufacturers, who may try to enter this market soon.

Truck sector still suffers

Europe’s economic problems have been felt heavily by the truck market. Germany, Poland’s most important export destination, is experiencing major economic issues. This is impacting Polish haulier’s ability to expand their fleets.

For the past two years, the market has been in a slump and new-truck sales results have confirmed this. In 2024, a total of 28,084 units were registered in Poland, 20.9% less than in 2023.

The largest tractor-trailer segment, saw registrations decline by 25.2% to 19,220 units. The weak results suggest the trend could continue into the first half of 2025.

Exports from Poland decline

The sluggish demand for new trucks has been followed by little interest in used vehicles. Exports to Turkey have severely decreased. A similar situation has been observed in countries such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

So, the number of trucks on forecourts has continued to increase, complicating an already difficult situation. The quarterly drops in values are getting smaller, but this does not indicate any increase in demand. Rather, it is the result of a lack of motivation to buy through price reductions and the very high over-valuation of vehicles in previous quarters.

The situation on the international haulage market is also reflected in regional, and domestic, transport. Logistics vehicles have seen steep value declines, confirming problems in the internal market. Construction vehicle prices remain relatively stable. However, this is a market with an ongoing shortage of used models.

Hard times ahead

Given the realities of the market in 2025, price declines should be expected across all market segments. Naturally, residual value declines will follow soon after.

There is also an unclear sales policy surrounding BEVs, which are seeing increased numbers from importers despite low demand. Together with the lack of support from government programmes for company purchases, this may contribute to further depreciation.

Importers face a major challenge in meeting EU emissions limits. Their sales policies will determine the final shape of the Polish market in 2025.