UK LCV market begins 2025 with continued decline
18 February 2025
New registrations of light-commercial vehicles (LCVs) slumped in January, while battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) enjoyed strong growth. Andy Picton, specialist residual value analyst at Glass’s, looks at the market’s performance with Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker.
A total of 19,050 new LCVs took to the UK’s roads in January, a 20.5% drop year on year. This was the market’s second consecutive month of decline.
Demand decreased across all LCV sectors, except vans under 2 tonnes gross-vehicle weight (GVW). The segment saw an 89.8% surge in deliveries compared to 12 months ago. Registrations of vans between 2 and 2.5 tonnes GVW fell 30.4%. This equated to a 1,533-unit loss year-on-year.
Vans between 2.5 and 3.5 tonnes GVW recorded a drop of 22.3%, with 11,537 deliveries. The sector continues to be the most popular in the UK LCV market, accounting for 60.5% of total volume last month. Elsewhere, the pickup segment declined 6.5%.
Ford LCVs in fine form
The Ford Transit Custom was the UK’s best-selling LCV in January, reaching 2,728 registrations. Its siblings, the Ford Ranger (1,805 units) and Ford Transit (1,735 units), finished second and third respectively. The Ford Transit Courier also appeared in 10th (511 units).
Stellantis Pro One also placed four LCVs in the top 10. The Vauxhall Vivaro came fourth (770 units), and the Peugeot Partner secured sixth (686 units). The Citroen Berlingo placed seventh (650 units) and the Vauxhall Combo took eighth (630 units).
Meanwhile, the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter finished fifth (712 units) and the Renault Trafic landed in ninth (518 units).
BEVs surge in 2025
Commercial BEV deliveries surged at the start of 2025. The sector recorded 1,340 registrations, a 13% or 154-unit increase compared to one year ago. This gave all-electric LCVs a market share of 7%.
Over half of all LCV models have zero-emission variants available. However, a lack of a van-specific infrastructure and effective government support continues to hinder the transition. This reflects the significant challenge ahead in fast-tracking operators toward BEV LCVs.
In this fast-changing sector, Stellantis has confirmed that after 120 years, production at its Luton plant is to cease in the second quarter of 2025. Machinery and process knowledge will move to Ellesmere Port. Electric vehicle (EV) production of the medium (eK0) vans will start alongside the existing small electric vans at the plant in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Volkswagen (VW) led the all-electric LCV sector, accounting for 28.7% of BEV deliveries up to 3.5 tonnes GVW in January. Ford secured second with a 25.4% share and Mercedes Benz captured 8.7% of the market in third.
Peugeot placed fourth and made up 7.5% of registrations, while Citroen came fifth with a 7.2% share. Vauxhall took seventh (6.9% share) followed by Renault (5.7% share), Toyota (3.8% share), Nissan (3.1% share) and Maxus (2.8% share).
VW creates a buzz
The VW ID.Buzz Cargo was the most popular all-electric LCV last month, with a 28.7% share. In second came the Ford E-Transit Custom which represented 20% of the market, with the Mercedes-Benz eSprinter in third taking a 6.1% share.
The Ford E-Transit finished fourth and made up 5.4% of BEV deliveries, while the Vauxhall Combo Electric captured 5.3% of the market in fifth.
Sixth place went to the Peugeot e-Expert (4.8% share) followed by the Citroen e-Berlingo (4.5% share) and the Toyota Proace City Electric (3.6% share). In ninth came the Peugeot e-Partner (2.5% share), while the Renault Kangoo E-Tech (2.4% share) completed the top 10.
An additional 124 BEVs from Fiat, Ford, Iveco, Maxus, Mercedes-Benz, Peugeot and Toyota between 3.5 tonnes and 4.25 tonnes GVW were registered as part of the Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme (VETS). This represented a 6.9% growth year on year and contributed towards a monthly market share of 0.6%.
A total of 1,464 BEV units were registered during the month compared to 1,302 last January. The segment accounted for 7.6% of total LCV deliveries, up 2.2 percentage points (pp).
The plug-in hybrid (PHEV) LCV market saw Ford and Toyota register 549 units in January. Ford delivered 367 Transit Custom PHEVs and 25 Transit Connect PHEVs. Meanwhile, Toyota registered 157 Corolla Commercials.
Positive LCV auction attendance
Attendance at used LCV auctions was positive during January with good turnouts at physical sales and more logging in online.
In an ongoing theme, there remains intense competition for clean low mileage vehicles, driving up market prices. Older, higher mileage vehicles, exhibiting more damage and in need of remedial work, attracted fewer bids and sold below-expected levels.
The supply and demand of used stock to the wholesale market appears well-balanced at present. This has resulted in stable market prices. These are expected to continue throughout the first quarter but may come under pressure as the market moves through the second quarter.
Lower LCV registrations during a COVID-19-affected 2022 are likely to result in a shortage of three-year-old vehicles during the second half of 2025 and into 2026. Although stock levels may be impacted, values should remain firm.
Increasing LCV auction prices
Average auction prices increased for the second consecutive month, rising over 10% in January. The average age of stock in January was seven months younger than models in December, falling from 80.3 months to 73.3 months. This was also 4.7 months younger than a year ago.
Average mileage increased by 0.4% to 80,397 miles (129,386km) during the month. However, this remained 2.1% lower than January 2024.
Euro 6 models made up 82% of all LCVs sold at auction last month. These vehicles recorded an average age of 57 months and an average mileage of 71,564 miles compared to 72,579 miles in December.
The market share of used electric vans fell from 0.9% in December to 0.7% in January. The average age of these vehicles dropped to 56.9 months from 70.7 months, with an average mileage of 27,619 miles up from 27,234 miles. Euro 5 stock made up the remaining 17.3% of sales, falling from 20.8% in the previous month.
Medium-sized van sales accounted for 35.9% of the overall total. Large vans represented 27.5% and small vans took a 25.5% share. Volumes of pickup sales accounted for only 11.1%. However, the sector recorded the highest average sale price of £13,859 (€16,687), a 10.2% increase from December.
Large vans covered more distance than any other vehicle type at an average of 92,760 miles. This was an increase of nearly 5,600 miles on the previous month and 1,775 miles compared to one year ago.
Improving conversion rates
Overall first-time conversion rates improved to 84.5%. This was the ninth consecutive month of growth and up from 83.8% in December. It was also up from 75.9% in January 2024.
The best conversion rate was achieved in the small-van sector at 85.2%. This was an improvement of 0.8 percentage points (pp) on December 2024. This was followed by the medium van sector at 85.1% (up 1.2pp) and the large van sector at 84.1% (up 1.9pp). A conversion rate of 81.5% (down 3pp) in the 4x4 pickup sector returned the lowest.
Used vehicles observed for sale in the retail market last month increased by 1% to just over 44,500 units. Diesel models accounted for 92.9% of this total, while 4.1% were BEVs, 2.2% were petrol, and 0.6% were PHEVs.
Out of all vehicles on sale, 37.5% were valued at £20,000 or more, while 35.6% were on sale for between £10,000 and £20,000. Vehicles on sale between £5,000 and £10,000 made up 21.4% of the overall market, while 5.5% were on sale for less than £5,000.
White vehicles made up just under half of all vans on sale at 49.8%, followed by grey (16% share) and silver (10.3% share). Average age fell by one month to 57 months, while the average mileage fell by 3.5% to just over 56,000 miles.
