New car registrations surge in France, Germany and Italy in September

New car registrations surge in France, Germany and Italy in September

3 October 2019

New car registrations enjoyed double-digit growth in France, Germany and Italy in September due to the low base of comparison in September 2018 as a result of the EU-wide implementation of WLTP.

Demand for new cars rose by 16.6% and 13.4% year-on-year respectively in France and Italy, but there was even higher growth, of 22.2%, in Germany. The new emissions test procedure, WLTP, came into force for all new cars sold from 1 September 2018 and this meant that manufacturers slowed production until their cars met the new testing requirements and/or they pre-registered existing stock before September 2018 to avoid the need to retrofit any cars not sold before the deadline.

Market correction

This had a significant detrimental impact on new car registrations across the EU in September 2018, and this is reflected in the September 2019 results. Across the first three major European markets to release September new car registrations data – France, Germany and Italy – the magnitude of growth is clearly linked to the extent of the decline in September 2018.

Germany suffered the greatest fall in new car demand in September 2018, down 30.5%, and, unsurprisingly, saw the biggest surge in demand in September 2019. New car registrations fell 25.4% and 12.8% respectively in Italy and France in September 2018, and this resulted in the positive market correction in their September results.

New car registrations, year-on-year % change, September 2019 and September 2018

Source: KBA, CCFA, ANFIA

Germany alone in positive territory

Despite the healthy growth in new car registrations in France, Germany and Italy in September 2019, only Germany is in positive territory in the first three quarters of 2019.

New car registrations, year-on-year % change, January to September 2019

Source: KBA, CCFA, ANFIA

The surge in new car registrations in September follows declines in demand in all three markets in August due to the high base of comparison in August 2018 ahead of the implementation of WLTP. Compared to the January-September period in 2018, new car registrations are 1.3% and 1.6% lower respectively in France and Italy.

Although further growth in new car registrations is to be expected in October, given the ongoing WLTP-induced weakness in October 2018, it is unlikely that this will be sufficient enough for France and Italy to see new car market growth in 2019.

New car demand in Germany, however, was still up, albeit by only 0.9%, in the first eight months of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018 – despite the decline in demand in August. The surge in new car registrations in September has pushed Germany further into positive territory, with demand up 2.5% in the first three quarters. As in France and Italy, further growth is to be expected in October and although this may be balanced out towards the end of the year, Germany should still see positive growth in 2019.