US new-car market growth projected for June

26 June 2026

The US new-car market is forecast to see moderate growth in June. But what are the factors powering this outlook, and how healthy is the sector six months into the year? JD Power reveals all in its latest outlook.

The US new-car market is set for moderate growth in June 2026, with total new-vehicle sales projected to reach 1,363,800 units. This equates to a 3.6% year-on-year increase, according to the latest forecast from JD Power. 

Without adjusting for selling days, this equates to an 8% rise, compared with June 2025. The seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) is expected to hit 16.5 million units, up 0.8 million units from 12 months prior.

Total new-vehicle sales in the second quarter of 2026 are projected to reach 4,226,600 units, an increase of 0.7% from the same period in 2025. Across the first half of the year, total new-vehicle sales are projected to reach 8,245,700 units, an increase of 1.2% compared with the first six months of 2025. 

New-vehicle retail sales are forecast to hit 1,114,700 units in June, up 2.7% year on year. This is 7% higher without adjusting for selling days. The SAAR is forecast to reach 13.7 million units, an increase of 0.5 million compared with June 2025. However, retail sales are expected to decline 0.2% in the second quarter, falling 4.1% across the first half of 2026.

Solid new-car demand in the US

Year-on-year comparisons remain impacted by unusual dynamics recorded in 2025. Then, consumers were reacting to the perceived risk of higher prices from vehicle tariffs. As a result, the subsequent volatility makes simple year-on-year comparison difficult.

‘Sales in March and April of 2025 were inflated as consumers rushed to showrooms and ‘pulled ahead’ their purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs,’ confirmed Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at JD Power.

‘By May, that pull-ahead had reversed into ‘payback’, with an estimated 63,000 sales pulled out of May, and an additional 12,000 sales pulled out of June and into the preceding months. This explains the growth in retail sales in June compared to a year ago,’ he added.

While the 4.1% decline in retail sales is notable, it is not considered alarming. For one thing, it is more than offset by rising fleet sales. Supply constraints on several of the best-selling vehicles in the market account for most of the decline. Although macroeconomic uncertainty, higher fuel prices and persistent affordability challenges present headwinds to new vehicle demand.

Affordability pressures remain

Despite some easing in financing conditions, affordability continues to act as a key constraint. The average interest rate on new-vehicle loans is expected to increase to 6.7%, its lowest June level since 2022.

However, the average transaction price has climbed to $46,387 (€40,657), up 0.8% year on year. Meanwhile, average monthly payments are expected to reach a record $813, a 3.4% increase, a new high watermark for June. A key driver of the higher monthly payment, despite longer loan terms, is lower trade-in equity.

‘Many of the buyers returning to showrooms today purchased when prices were at their peak several years ago, when inventory was scarce,’ confirmed King. ‘This is manifesting itself as more buyers carrying negative equity on their trade-in. A total of 29.5% of trade-ins had negative equity in June, up 1.4 percentage points (pp) from a year ago.’

Incentives increase in June

As a result of wider affordability pressures, manufacturers are pushing discounts to maintain buyer interest. ‘Average incentive spending per vehicle is trending towards $3,217, a 12.7% increase from a year ago,’ stated King.

‘Part of that jump reflects tariff dynamics last year, since several OEMs made unseasonal pullbacks in incentive spending last June as they cut discounts precautionarily to offset tariff costs. Incentives as a percentage of MSRP are expected to hit 6.2% in June, up 0.6pp from June 2025,’ he added.

Non-electric vehicles have seen incentive spending per vehicle trend towards $2,970. This marks a 18.6% increase from a year prior. Electric vehicles (EVs) have also seen increased incentive spend.

‘Incentive spending on EVs remains materially higher, expected to reach $9,824 per unit, up 3.1% from last year, which continues to underscore the role of discounting in supporting demand for electric vehicles,’ added King.

Coupled with this, longer-term loan terms are becoming an increasingly attractive option for consumers to bridge the affordability gap. This comes as 13.6% of loans now extend to 84 months or more.

Retail sales volume growth with slightly higher transaction prices means that total retail consumer expenditure is projected to rise to $49.4 billion. This marks an increase of $4.2 billion compared with June 2025.

The combination of elevated fuel prices and increased availability of vehicles with hybrid powertrains is driving a shift in the sales mix. The Hybrid share of retail sales has climbed to 16%, up 2.3pp. Meanwhile, the EV share has softened to 7.4%, following the elimination of federal EV credits.