Monthly Market Update: BEVs record another used-car market low in August
04 September 2024
Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) hit another residual value (RV) low across Europe’s biggest used-car markets last month. Experts from Autovista Group analyse the data with Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker.
Average RVs of three-year-old cars at 60,000km fell across most major European used-car markets during August.
This decline was most visible in the UK, where residual values presented as a percentage of retained list price (%RV) dropped by 10.2 percentage points (pp) compared with August 2023. However, last month’s result marked a 0.3pp improvement on July 2024.
Germany experienced a similar trend. In August, %RVs fell to 50.1% from 56.9% a year earlier, while increasing 0.2pp on the previous month. Italy saw %RVs slump by 4.2pp compared with August 2023 and 0.6pp compared to July 2024.
RVs also fell year on year and month on month in Austria, with the former dropping 3.8pp and the latter 0.8pp. Switzerland saw %RVs fall to 47.4% from 50.3% 12 months ago, and from 47.5% in July.
Spain suffered a 1.9pp year-on year decline in %RVs and a 0.3pp drop on July’s performance. Meanwhile, France saw %RVs fall to 54.8% in August from 55.5% in July.
Barren BEV result
However, these overall declines were not as severe as those suffered by battery-electric vehicles. In August, BEVs were the worst-performing powertrain in the used-car markets of Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK.
The powertrain recorded its lowest %RV figure across all seven of these markets since September 2023, when Spain matched last month’s performance.
In Italy, BEV %RVs sat at 32.5% in August. This was 18.1pp away from the overall market average. Additionally, the technology declined from 36.3% in August 2023, and 36.3% in July 2024.
BEVs in France recorded an average %RV of 38.4%. This was 16.4pp off the wider market average, and down from 39.9% in the previous month.
In the UK, BEVs endured an 8pp year-on-year %RV slump, dropping to 35.2%. This was 15.2pp away from the UK’s overall performance, and a decrease of 0.5pp from the previous month.
Germany’s BEV segment finished August 11.2pp away from the market’s %RV average, at 38.9%. Compared to the same period last year, this was a 7.1pp decline. RVs were 0.7pp behind July.
BEVs in Spain reached a %RV of 49% in August, 10.5pp below the overall average. This result was a 0.6pp rise year on year, but a 0.4pp drop from the previous month.
In Austria, the powertrain was 7.3pp below the market average, sitting at 43%. BEV %RVs were down 4.3pp on August 2023, and 0.9pp on July. Switzerland had the smallest difference in value retention between BEVs and the overall market, at 5.4pp. The %RV of 42%, was down 5.1pp decline from one year ago, and 0.8pp on the previous month.
Link to list prices?
This widespread decline in BEV %RVs may be linked to climbing list prices. This metric increased in Austria and Switzerland by 14.5% and 11.9% year on year, respectively.
In Germany, the average list price for the powertrain was up by 4.8% compared to 12 months ago, while in Italy it saw the indicator rise by 2.8%.
However, Spain and the UK saw list price drops of 3.1% and 2.3% respectively when compared to August 2023.
By December 2024, all seven markets forecast BEV %RV declines. This is most notable in Germany and Italy, with an expected drop of 10.4%. Yet, RVs for the technology are expected to ease in 2025 and 2026 apart from in the UK. In this market, BEVs are predicted to decline by 3% in each of the following three years.
Demand dropping in Austria
‘Following a marginal recovery in July, the sales-volume index (SVI) in Austria dropped in August,’ explained Robert Madas, Eurotax regional head of valuations, Austria, Switzerland, and Poland.
‘The number of observed sales decreased by 3% compared to the previous month. However, compared to the same period one year ago, demand was up 8.3% year on year,’ he highlighted.
Meanwhile, the active-market volume index (AMVI) of two-to-four-year-old passenger cars slightly decreased by 0.6% compared to July. This means that the supply volume of passenger cars in this age bracket slumped by 12.6% compared to the previous year.
At 63.4 days, the average amount of time needed to sell a used car fell slightly in August. Diesel vehicles continued to be the fastest-selling powertrain, averaging 55.7 days.
This was followed by petrol vehicles at 65.1 days, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) at 71.1 days and hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) at 74.6 days. BEVs continued to take the longest time to sell at 78.5 days.
‘RVs of 36-month-old cars presented as a percentage of the original list price sat at 50.3% on average in August. This equated to a decrease of 0.8pp compared to July, but a larger drop of 3.8pp compared with 12 months ago. This illustrates the increasing pressure on RVs,’ noted Madas.
HEVs retained the greatest amount of trade value at 56.1%, followed by petrol cars (52%). Then came diesel models (50.4%) and PHEVs (47.7%). BEVs once again retained the lowest amount of value, at 43%.
In 2024, %RVs are expected to drop further by around 4.8% year on year. Due to weakening demand and unwavering supply, further pressure on values can be expected. In 2025 and 2026, %RVs are expected to decrease at a slower pace.
Declining RVs in France
France recorded falling RVs again in August, in both percentage and absolute terms. All powertrains suffered drops compared to July, with BEVs recording the greatest drops. HEVs saw the smallest drop, with %RVs down 0.4pp. This situation is still helping used-car sales as there was a higher number of transactions.
‘As of December 2023, electric car purchase incentives became dependent on lifetime carbon emissions, removing the eligibility of some brands and models,’ stated Ludovic Percier, Autovista Group residual value and market analyst for France.
‘Used models are still too expensive, causing prices to drop month after month. Where demand does not meet supply, the market sees a strong RV drop and lower prices,’ he outlined.
PHEVs RVs fell again in August, down 1.9% in absolute and percentage terms. This confirms a negative trend following two consecutive months of decline. However, PHEV demand is not as concerning compared to previous months, especially for mass-market brands such as Hyundai and Cupra.
‘With its fleet-based benefits, the technology is better suited to the new-car market, while demand for used models flags. Newer PHEVs also feature more advanced technology and improved ranges at lower list prices, directly impacting the used market,’ commented Percier.
HEV values were almost stable in August, despite a drop in July. The technology is currently the best compromise between full internal-combustion engine (ICE) and BEV vehicles.
Furthermore, some small HEV models are becoming more affordable as time goes on. Absolute RVs of petrol and diesel cars dropped last month. This aligns with the global fall of ICE powertrains.
This illustrates the descent of the French used-car market, confirmed by the SVI in August which fell by 2.3%. Consumers are clearly waiting for prices to drop further, even if August is always a quieter month in terms of sales.
SVI decrease in Germany
Following a sharp decrease in July, Germany’s SVI dropped by 1.7% month on month and 4.6% year on year. However, the SVI almost doubled for BEVs compared to August 2023 as transaction activity continued to accelerate.
HEVs and PHEVs were traded in greater volumes compared with 12 months ago, whereas diesel and petrol cars suffered in terms of activity.
At the same time, the AMVI of two-to-four-year-old passenger cars decreased by 0.3% compared to July. However, this means that the supply volume of passenger cars in this age bracket dropped by 19.4% compared to the previous year.
The average number of days needed to sell a used car decreased slightly to 56.9 days in August. Diesel-powered models and PHEVs sold the fastest at 53.4 days and 53.5 days respectively. Then came petrol cars after 56.6 days and HEVs after 62 days. BEVs took the longest time to sell at 71.7 days.
‘Despite weaker demand, the average RV of a 36-month-old car remained rather stable. On average, models had a %RV of 50.1%. This equated to a marginal month-on-month increase of 0.2pp, but a considerable decline of 6.8pp year-on-year, showing that pressure on RVs is increasing,’ said Madas.
HEVs led the way with a %RV of 54.1%. Then came petrol cars at 51.8%, diesel models at 50.5%, then PHEVs at 45.9%. Meanwhile, 36-month-old BEVs retained the lowest level of value at 38.9%.
‘As demand weakens and supply persists, RVs can be expected to come under even more pressure. This year, %RVs are expected to fall further, dropping by 8.1% when compared with December 2023. In 2025 and 2026, %RVs are expected to experience a marginal decrease,’ he forecast.
Optimistic used-car market in Spain
New-car registrations in Spain increased by 3.4% in July, maintaining the positive trend seen in previous months. This boost in deliveries continues to be largely driven by the leasing channel.
However, electric vehicles (EVs) continue to decrease their volume in the new-car market, moving Spain further away from the European average.
‘The recent renewal of the sustainable vehicle incentive program is expected to bring electrified vehicles back to a positive trajectory. In the meantime, the plug-in share remained just below 10% in July,’ stated Ana Azofra, Autovista Group head of valuations and insights, Spain.
The figures appear more optimistic on the used-car market. Sales increased by 18% in July, according to MSI data.
‘Used sales are continuing to grow, which is good news for the long age of the Spanish car parc. On the other hand, EV sales are following a positive trend, probably encouraged by the drop in transaction prices,’ she explained.
All other powertrains are also seeing transaction prices fall. The current average price of a three-year-old car at 60,000km is €19,866, down from €21,224 during the same period last year. It has also broken the €20,000 barrier since the last report.
This average month-on-month drop of 1.1% was caused by differing performances from each powertrain. Used petrol cars experienced a 0.6% loss in transaction prices, while BEVs slumped by 4.9%.
The average number of days to sell used cars in Spain has fallen slightly this summer to two months or 59.8 days.
Volumes fall further in Switzerland
‘Despite used car supply returning to a pre-COVID-19 level in Switzerland, overall volumes are now falling again. Since 2023, the cost of living in the country has risen, while new-car registrations have not bounced back,’ highlighted Hans-Peter Annen, head of valuations and insights, at Eurotax Switzerland.
The AMVI for two-to-four-year-old passenger cars fell by 2.1% from July to August 2024. Compared to August 2023, this indicator dropped by 10.5%. This indicates that the supply of younger used models has not recovered.
Furthermore, the SVI dropped by 21.8% month on month and by 16% year on year. This was due to the holiday period.
‘Influenced by lower supply and less demand, RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km slightly decreased again. %RV values decreased to 47.4% in August from 47.5% in July. However, the year-on-year drop was more severe, as the %RV level sat at 50.3% in August 2023,’ he outlined.
HEVs retained the most value in July with a %RV of 51.2%. Then came petrol cars (48.5%), diesel models (46.6%) and PHEVs with 44.7%. BEVs were once again the worst-performing powertrain, retaining only 42% of their original list price.
Sales of two-to-four-year-old passenger cars did not slow down in August. Time in stock remained stable at 77.8 days on average. HEVs sold the fastest at 69.7 days, followed by petrol and diesel cars both after 73.6 days. PHEVs took 88.7 days to sell and BEVs 99.6 days on average.
Set against a wider declining trend, the values of three-year-old cars are forecast to keep falling from a still relatively high point. Last year saw %RVs fall by 5% year on year. By the end of 2024, used-car values are expected to drop by 4.6% due to stable supply and conservative demand.
Rising RVs in the UK
The average three-year-old car retained 50.4% of its original list price in August, a rise of 0.3pp from July. While not a significant value uplift, it indicates a healthy used-car market, as the summer months can be lacklustre. For example, last August’s average %RV fell by 1.9pp month on month.
That said, the past 12 months have seen significant falls in %RVs, losing over 10pp from August 2023. Some commentators have described this as a ‘correction’.
‘Retail activity has reportedly been reasonably strong, requiring dealers to replenish stock more frequently. In turn, auction activity has been buoyant but more importantly consistent,’ stated Jayson Whittington, Glass’s chief editor, cars and leisure vehicles.
‘Hammer prices have not suffered large swings, giving dealers the confidence to buy for stock, instead of just replenishing what has sold. Although the volume of cars on offer at auction has not been plentiful, there is a balanced dynamic of supply and demand,’ he commented.
The average time it took a dealer to sell a used car remained unchanged in August, at 35.2 days. BEVs appeared in the fastest-selling models list yet again, with the Tesla Model 3 leading the way. It seems the technology has reached a price point that appeals to used car retail buyers.
‘This month’s report shows that although there might be a perception that used BEVs are more expensive to buy than other powertrains, the absolute RV for all-electric models is £223 lower than the average of all fuel types, at £15,058. This might explain the uptick in demand for used BEV models,’ Whittington concluded.
